Ligue 1 · Matchday 9 · Mon 2 Nov · 20:45 (Italian time)
Lorient vs Brest: preview and prediction
Preview
Lorient, 10th on 12 points after a 0-0 draw at Angers, host a Brest side 13th on 9 who lost 2-1 to Nice. On one side a very firm defence, on the other a productive attack but a back line that always gives something away. Details could make the difference in a very tight game.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeLorient | AwayBrest |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th12 points | 13th9 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–3–2 | 2–3–3 |
| Goals for–against | 7–60.9–0.8 per match | 14–121.8–1.5 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 4 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Points away | 5in 4 matches | 5in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 8 | 6 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 8 | 7 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 5 of 8 | 0 of 8 |
The analysis
Lorient: five clean sheets in eight games
Lorient have made defence their strength: five clean sheets and 6 goals conceded in eight games. The 0-0 draw at Angers is typical of a side that scores few, with 7 goals. At home they have taken 7 points from four games.
Brest: no clean sheets in eight games
Brest score but never shut the door: 14 goals scored and not one game without conceding. The 2-1 defeat by Nice left regrets, but away from home they have taken 5 points from four games.
What to expect
The model gives Lorient 40% and Brest 32%, with the draw at 28% and 1.3 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (12%) and 0-1 and 0-0 (10%). Under 2.5 is at 58%, both teams to score at 48%; a clean sheet for Lorient is rated at 34%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Lorient vs Brest · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Brest under 1.5 goals
Brest score at most once
70% estimated probability
Lorient have conceded 6 goals in eight games and the model expects 1.1 from Brest: 70% goes to the visitors scoring at most once.
Did not come true
Under 2.5
At most 2 goals in total
58% estimated probability
The model expects 2.4 goals and gives 58% to at most 2: only three of Lorient’s eight games have had at least three.
Came true
X2 & Under 2.5
Brest avoid defeat and at most 2 goals in total
39% estimated probability
The boldest pick backs Brest to avoid defeat with at most 2 goals, at 39%: they have taken 5 points from four away games.
Came true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.