Ligue 1 · Matchday 9 · Sun 1 Nov · 15:00 (Italian time)
Strasbourg vs Auxerre: preview and prediction
Preview
Strasbourg, 16th on 7 points, are in full crisis: four defeats in the last five, the latest 3-0 at Rennes. Auxerre, 12th on 10, come off a 1-1 draw with Le Mans and are enjoying a good spell. Curiously, the two have the same goal record: 12 scored and 18 conceded.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeStrasbourg | AwayAuxerre |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th7 points | 12th10 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–1–5 | 3–1–4 |
| Goals for–against | 12–181.5–2.2 per match | 12–181.5–2.2 per match |
| Points at home | 4in 3 matches | 7in 4 matches |
| Points away | 3in 5 matches | 3in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 7 of 8 | 6 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 8 | 7 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 8 | 1 of 8 |
The analysis
Strasbourg: four defeats in the last five
Strasbourg are in their hardest moment: four defeats in the last five, with the 3-0 loss at Rennes the latest. They have never kept a clean sheet and seven of eight games have had at least three goals. At home, however, they have taken 4 points from three games.
Auxerre: three wins in the last five
Auxerre are on the rise: three wins in the last five, with a 1-1 draw with Le Mans the latest result. Their defence gives up chances, with 18 goals conceded, and they have taken 3 points from four away games.
What to expect
The model gives Strasbourg 51% and Auxerre 28%, with the draw at 21% and 2.1 expected goals to 1.5. The most likely scores are 2-1 and 1-1 (9%) and 2-2 and 1-2 (7%). Over 2.5 is at 69%, both teams to score at 68%; a clean sheet for Strasbourg is rated at 22%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Strasbourg vs Auxerre · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Strasbourg win or draw
72% estimated probability
The model gives 51% to Strasbourg and 21% to the draw: 72% goes to the hosts avoiding defeat, against an Auxerre side who struggle away.
Came true
Auxerre under 1.5 goals
Auxerre score at most once
56% estimated probability
The model expects 1.5 goals from Auxerre and gives 56% to them scoring at most once, even though Strasbourg have never kept a clean sheet.
Came true
1X & Under 3.5
Strasbourg avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total
37% estimated probability
The boldest pick goes against the 3.6 goals expected: Strasbourg avoiding defeat with at most 3 goals, at 37%.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.