Ligue 1 · Matchday 9 · Sun 1 Nov · 17:15 (Italian time)
Lyon vs Angers: preview and prediction
Preview
Lyon return to their own fans after a 2-0 defeat at PSG. They are 5th on 14 points, have a big side’s home record and start as favourites against an Angers team 14th on 8, after a 0-0 draw with Lorient. The visitors have held their own on the road, however, and should not be underestimated.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeLyon | AwayAngers |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th14 points | 14th8 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–2–2 | 2–2–4 |
| Goals for–against | 13–71.6–0.9 per match | 9–151.1–1.9 per match |
| Points at home | 10in 4 matches | 4in 5 matches |
| Points away | 4in 4 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 8 | 3 of 8 |
The analysis
Lyon: 10 points from four home games
Lyon are strong in front of their own fans: 10 points from four home games and 7 goals conceded in all. The 2-0 defeat at PSG does not change the verdict on a side with three clean sheets.
Angers: 4 points from three away games
Angers do better on the road than at home: 4 points from three away games, the same as from five at home. The 0-0 draw with Lorient moved them up, but the 15 goals conceded remain a problem.
What to expect
The model gives Lyon 67% and Angers 13%, with the draw at 20% and 2.0 expected goals to 0.8. The most likely scores are 2-0 (13%), 1-0 (12%) and 2-1 and 1-1 (10%). Over 2.5 is at 53%, both teams to score at 47%; a clean sheet for Lyon is rated at 46%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Lyon vs Angers · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
77% estimated probability
The model expects 2.8 goals in total and gives 77% to at least 2: Angers have conceded 15 in eight games.
Came true
Angers to score
At least one goal for Angers
54% estimated probability
The model expects 0.8 goals from Angers, but gives 54% to at least one: they can be dangerous on the road.
Did not come true
Both teams score & Over 2.5
Both teams score and at least 3 goals in total
37% estimated probability
The boldest pick needs goals at both ends and at least 3 in total, at 37%: the model gives 47% to both teams scoring and 53% to at least 3 goals.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.