Ligue 1 · Matchday 9 · Sun 1 Nov · 20:45 (Italian time)
Marseille vs Toulouse: preview and prediction
Preview
Marseille have found their smile again: three wins in a row, the latest a wild 4-3 against Le Havre. They are 9th on 12 points with the third-best attack in the league, and host a Toulouse side 11th on 10 who have not lost in the last five. All the ingredients for a spectacular game are there.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeMarseille | AwayToulouse |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th12 points | 11th10 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–0–4 | 2–4–2 |
| Goals for–against | 18–132.2–1.6 per match | 12–111.5–1.4 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 4 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Points away | 6in 4 matches | 6in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 8 | 5 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 8 | 2 of 8 |
The analysis
Marseille: three wins in a row, the third-best attack
Marseille have changed gear after an up-and-down start: three straight wins and 18 goals scored in eight games. The 4-3 win over Le Havre shows the merits and flaws of a side that scores a lot but concedes, with 13 goals against.
Toulouse: four draws, unbeaten in five
Toulouse are hard to beat: they have not lost in the last five and have drawn four of eight this season. The 0-0 draw with Troyes confirms an organised side, who have taken 6 points from four away games.
What to expect
The model gives Marseille 51% and Toulouse 26%, with the draw at 22% and 1.9 expected goals to 1.3. The most likely scores are 1-1 and 2-1 (10%), 1-0 (8%) and 2-0 (7%). Over 2.5 is at 63%, both teams to score at 62%; a clean sheet for Marseille is rated at 27%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Marseille vs Toulouse · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Marseille win or draw
74% estimated probability
The model gives 51% to Marseille and 22% to the draw: 74% goes to the hosts avoiding defeat, on the back of three straight wins.
Came true
Marseille 2+ goals
Marseille score at least twice
57% estimated probability
The model expects 1.9 goals from Marseille and gives 57% to them scoring at least two goals: the third-best attack in the league has 18.
Came true
1 & Over 2.5
Marseille win and at least 3 goals in total
37% estimated probability
The boldest pick needs a Marseille win with at least 3 goals in total, at 37%. The model expects 3.2 and gives 63% to at least three goals.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.