Ligue 1 · Matchday 9 · Sun 1 Nov · 17:15 (Italian time)
Paris FC vs Monaco: preview and prediction
Preview
Paris FC, 6th on 14 points, want to bounce back after a 2-1 defeat at Lens. They are strong in front of their fans and host a Monaco side 4th on 15 who have lost just once but often draw, as in the 1-1 with Lille. The two are close in the table: a balanced, hard-fought game can be expected.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeParis FC | AwayMonaco |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th14 points | 4th15 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–2–2 | 4–3–1 |
| Goals for–against | 13–91.6–1.1 per match | 11–71.4–0.9 per match |
| Points at home | 10in 4 matches | 8in 4 matches |
| Points away | 4in 4 matches | 7in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 8 | 3 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 8 | 5 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 8 | 2 of 8 |
The analysis
Paris FC: 10 points from four home games
Paris FC have found their strength in front of their own fans: 10 points from four games. The 2-1 defeat at Lens ended a good moment, but with 9 goals conceded and three clean sheets they remain firm.
Monaco: just one defeat in eight games
Monaco rarely lose: just one defeat in eight games and 7 goals conceded. Three draws among their recent results, including the 1-1 with Lille, point to a side that struggles to finish games off, however.
What to expect
The model gives Paris FC 41% and Monaco 32%, with the draw at 27% and 1.3 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-1 (13%), 1-0 (11%), 0-1 (10%) and 0-0 (9%). Under 2.5 is at 56%, both teams to score at 49%; a clean sheet for Paris FC is rated at 32%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Paris FC vs Monaco · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Under 3.5
At most 3 goals in total
77% estimated probability
Only three of Monaco’s eight games have had at least three goals and the model expects 2.4: 77% goes to no more than 3.
Did not come true
X2
Monaco win or draw
59% estimated probability
Monaco have lost just once: the model gives them 32% and the draw 27%, so 59% for the visitors avoiding defeat.
Did not come true
X2 & Under 2.5
Monaco avoid defeat and at most 2 goals in total
37% estimated probability
The boldest pick backs Monaco to avoid defeat with at most 2 goals, at 37%, with 1-1 the likeliest score.
Did not come true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.