Ligue 1 · Matchday 8 · Sun 25 Oct · 17:15 (Italian time)
Toulouse vs Troyes: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Toulouse, eleventh on 9 points, host Troyes, seventeenth on 4, on Sunday at 17:15 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 3-0 win at Le Mans; the visitors have lost their last five games, the latest 3-1 at home to Lens.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeToulouse | AwayTroyes |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th9 points | 17th4 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–3–2 | 1–1–5 |
| Goals for–against | 12–111.7–1.6 per match | 5–160.7–2.3 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 3 matches | 1in 4 matches |
| Points away | 6in 4 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 7 | 1 of 7 |
The analysis
Toulouse: a 3-0 win at Le Mans
Two wins, three draws and two defeats, 12 goals scored and 11 conceded. At home they have taken 3 points from three games, away 6 from four; they come off a 3-0 win at Le Mans. Five of their seven games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four; they have kept one clean sheet.
Troyes: five defeats in a row
One win, a draw and five defeats, 5 goals scored and 16 conceded (2.3 a game). They have lost their last five, the latest 3-1 at home to Lens. At home they have taken 1 point from four games, away 3 from three. They have kept one clean sheet and three of their seven games have had at least three goals.
What to expect
The model gives Toulouse 65% and Troyes 16%, with the draw at 20% and 2.2 expected goals to 1.0. The most likely scores are 2-0, 2-1 and 1-0 (10%), then 1-1 (9%). A Toulouse clean sheet is rated at 38%, Over 2.5 at 60%.
Our prediction
Toulouse vs Troyes · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Troyes under 1.5 goals
Troyes score at most once
75% estimated probability
Troyes have scored 5 goals in seven games, 0.7 a game, and have lost their last five. The model gives them 1.0 expected goals.
1
Toulouse win
65% estimated probability
Troyes have lost five of seven and conceded 16 goals. Toulouse have taken only 3 points from three at home, but the model rates them at 65% against 16% for Troyes.
Toulouse clean sheet
Toulouse do not concede
38% estimated probability
Toulouse have kept a clean sheet just once in seven, but Troyes have scored 5 goals in seven games. 2-0 and 1-0, two of the three most likely scores (10% each), fit the choice.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.