Ligue 1 · Matchday 9 · Sat 31 Oct · 20:45 (Italian time)
Troyes vs Le Mans: preview and prediction
Preview
Troyes and Le Mans meet at a delicate moment for both. The hosts, 17th on 5 points, have the worst attack in the league and come off a 0-0 draw at Toulouse. Le Mans are 15th on 7 and drew 1-1 with Auxerre. The need for points could make this a very hard-fought game.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeTroyes | AwayLe Mans |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th5 points | 15th7 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–2–5 | 1–4–3 |
| Goals for–against | 5–160.6–2.0 per match | 11–161.4–2.0 per match |
| Points at home | 1in 4 matches | 5in 4 matches |
| Points away | 4in 4 matches | 2in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 8 | 6 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 8 | 7 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 8 | 0 of 8 |
The analysis
Troyes: five goals scored in eight games
Troyes struggle above all up front: 5 goals scored in eight games, the lowest in the league. At home they have taken just 1 point from four games. The 0-0 draw at Toulouse ended a run of four defeats: now they need consistency.
Le Mans: four draws in eight games
Le Mans draw often but rarely win: one win, four draws and three defeats. They have scored 11 goals, but have never kept a clean sheet, and away from home they have taken 2 points from four games.
What to expect
The model gives Troyes 37% and Le Mans 37%, with the draw at 26% and 1.4 expected goals to 1.4. The most likely scores are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 and 0-1 (9%) and 2-1 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 52%, both teams to score at 56%; a clean sheet for Troyes is rated at 25%.
Our prediction, and how it went
Troyes vs Le Mans · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Troyes to score
At least one goal for Troyes
75% estimated probability
Le Mans have never kept a clean sheet and the model expects 1.4 goals from Troyes: 75% goes to at least one.
Came true
1X
Troyes win or draw
63% estimated probability
Le Mans have taken 2 points from four away games: the model gives 37% to Troyes and 26% to the draw, so 63% for the hosts avoiding defeat.
Came true
1
Troyes win
37% estimated probability
The boldest pick is a straight Troyes win, at 37%, level with a visitors’ win. At home, however, they have yet to get going.
Came true
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.