La Liga · Matchday 10 · Sun 25 Oct · 14:00 (Italian time)
Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Athletic Bilbao host Getafe on Sunday at 14:00 (Italian time) after a 3-1 defeat at Levante in Wednesday’s rearranged game. The Basques are thirteenth on 9 points; Getafe, fifteenth on the same total, are unbeaten at home but have no points from four away games, and come off a 1-1 draw with Rayo Vallecano.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeAthletic Bilbao | AwayGetafe |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th9 points | 15th9 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–3–3 | 2–3–4 |
| Goals for–against | 8–91.0–1.1 per match | 5–110.6–1.2 per match |
| Points at home | 5in 4 matches | 9in 5 matches |
| Points away | 4in 4 matches | 0in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 8 | 2 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 8 | 3 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 4 of 8 | 2 of 9 |
The analysis
Athletic Bilbao: four clean sheets in eight games
Two wins, three draws and three defeats in eight games, 8 goals scored and 9 conceded. Athletic have kept four clean sheets and only three games have had at least three goals. At home they have taken 5 points from four games, away 4 from four; on Wednesday they lost 3-1 at Levante in the rearranged game.
Getafe: unbeaten at home, nothing away
Two wins, three draws and four defeats, 5 goals scored and 11 conceded: Getafe score little, 0.6 goals a game, and only two of their nine games have had at least three goals. All 9 of their points have come at home, without a defeat in five games; away they have none from four. They have kept two clean sheets and come off a 1-1 draw with Rayo Vallecano.
What to expect
The model gives Athletic 54% and Getafe 18%, with 1.4 expected goals to 0.7: at 2.0 expected goals in total it is the lowest-scoring game of the La Liga round. The most likely score is 1-0 (18%), then 0-0 (13%), 2-0 and 1-1 (12%). Under 2.5 is at 67%, an Athletic clean sheet at 52%.
Our prediction
Athletic Bilbao vs Getafe · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Under 2.5
At most 2 goals in total
67% estimated probability
Only three of Athletic’s eight games and two of Getafe’s nine have had at least three goals; the model expects 2.0 in total.
1X & Under 2.5
Athletic Bilbao avoid defeat and at most 2 goals in total
56% estimated probability
Athletic or the draw is worth 82% in the model; we add a ceiling of two goals. Getafe have scored 5 goals in nine games.
Athletic Bilbao win to nil
Athletic Bilbao win without conceding
39% estimated probability
Athletic have kept a clean sheet in four of eight games; Getafe have scored 5 goals in nine and have no points from four away games. To a Basque win we add Getafe failing to score: 1-0 is the most likely score, at 18%.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.