La Liga · Matchday 10 · Sat 24 Oct · 18:30 (Italian time)
Valencia vs Villarreal: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Valencia, nineteenth on 6 points, host Villarreal on Saturday at 18:30 (Italian time). The hosts have taken only 2 points from five home games and come off a 0-0 draw with Athletic Bilbao; Villarreal, twelfth on 9, drew 0-0 with Elche.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeValencia | AwayVillarreal |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th6 points | 12th9 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–3–5 | 2–3–4 |
| Goals for–against | 6–150.7–1.7 per match | 13–131.4–1.4 per match |
| Points at home | 2in 5 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Points away | 4in 4 matches | 5in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 9 | 6 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 9 | 6 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 9 | 1 of 9 |
The analysis
Valencia: two points from five home games
One win, three draws and five defeats, 6 goals scored and 15 conceded. Valencia have taken 2 points from five home games and 4 from four away. They have drawn their last two, the latest 0-0 with Athletic Bilbao, and have kept three clean sheets. Both teams have scored in only three of their games.
Villarreal: 13 goals scored and 13 conceded
Two wins, three draws and four defeats, 13 goals scored and 13 conceded. Villarreal have taken 5 points from five away games and 4 from four at home; they come off a 0-0 draw with Elche. They have kept just one clean sheet and both teams have scored in six of nine games.
What to expect
The model gives Villarreal 45% and Valencia 28%, with the draw at 27% and 1.4 expected goals to 1.0. The most likely scores are 1-1 (13%), 0-1 (12%) and 1-0 and 0-0 (9%). Valencia have scored 6 goals in nine games: Under 2.5 is at 56%, both teams to score at 49%, a Villarreal clean sheet at 35%.
Our prediction
Valencia vs Villarreal · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Villarreal win or draw
72% estimated probability
Valencia have won just one game in nine and have taken 2 points from five at home. The model gives the draw 27% and Villarreal 45%.
Under 2.5
At most 2 goals in total
56% estimated probability
Valencia score 0.7 goals a game and have kept three clean sheets; the model expects 2.4 in total. Villarreal, though, have had at least three goals in six of nine games.
Villarreal clean sheet
Villarreal do not concede
35% estimated probability
Only Getafe (5 goals) have scored less than Valencia (6 in nine games): the model gives them 1.0 expected goals. Villarreal have kept a clean sheet once in nine, but a visitors’ clean sheet is rated at 35%.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.