La Liga · Matchday 10 · Sun 25 Oct · 16:15 (Italian time)
Celta Vigo vs Real Betis: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Celta Vigo, eighth on 11 points, host Real Betis, fourth on 19, on Sunday at 16:15 (Italian time). Celta have drawn five of nine games and come off a 2-1 win over Alavés; Betis come off a 5-2 home defeat to Barcelona.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeCelta Vigo | AwayReal Betis |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th11 points | 4th19 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–5–2 | 6–1–2 |
| Goals for–against | 10–71.1–0.8 per match | 16–141.8–1.6 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 5 matches | 12in 5 matches |
| Points away | 4in 4 matches | 7in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 4 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
The analysis
Celta Vigo: five draws in nine games
Two wins, five draws and two defeats, 10 goals scored and 7 conceded. Celta have kept four clean sheets and only three games have had at least three goals. At home they have taken 7 points from five games, away 4 from four; last time out they beat Alavés 2-1.
Real Betis: 12 points out of 15 at home, but 14 goals conceded
Six wins, a draw and two defeats, 16 goals scored and 14 conceded. Betis have taken 12 points from five home games and 7 from four away; they come off a 5-2 home defeat to Barcelona. They have kept four clean sheets and both teams have scored in five of their games.
What to expect
The model gives Celta Vigo 39% and Betis 34%, with the draw at 27% and 1.3 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely score is 1-1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%) and 0-1 (10%). Celta have kept a clean sheet in four of nine games and only three of their games have had at least three goals: Under 2.5 is at 56%, both teams to score at 49%.
Our prediction
Celta Vigo vs Real Betis · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Under 3.5
At most 3 goals in total
77% estimated probability
The model expects 2.4 goals in total. Only three of Celta’s games and four of Betis’s have had at least three goals.
Under 2.5
At most 2 goals in total
56% estimated probability
Celta have scored 10 goals and conceded 7 in nine games, and have kept four clean sheets, like Betis. The model expects 2.4 in total.
1X & Under 2.5
Celta Vigo avoid defeat and at most 2 goals in total
40% estimated probability
Celta have taken 7 points from five at home, with five draws in nine games. The model gives Celta or the draw 66% and games with fewer than three goals 56%.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.