Ligue 1 · Matchday 8 · Sun 25 Oct · 17:15 (Italian time)
Angers vs Lorient: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Angers, fifteenth on 7 points, host Lorient, seventh on 11, on Sunday at 17:15 (Italian time). The hosts have lost their last two games, the latest 5-2 at home to Marseille; Lorient have won three of their last five, including a 1-0 win over Monaco.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeAngers | AwayLorient |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 15th7 points | 7th11 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–1–4 | 3–2–2 |
| Goals for–against | 9–151.3–2.1 per match | 7–61.0–0.9 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 4 matches | 7in 4 matches |
| Points away | 4in 3 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
The analysis
Angers: two defeats in a row, the latest 5-2 at home
Two wins, a draw and four defeats, 9 goals scored and 15 conceded. At home they have taken 3 points from four games, away 4 from three. They have lost their last two, the latest 5-2 at home to Marseille. Four of their seven games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four; they have kept two clean sheets.
Lorient: four clean sheets in seven games
Three wins, two draws and two defeats, 7 goals scored and 6 conceded. At home they have taken 7 points from four games, away 4 from three; they have won their last two, the latest 1-0 at home to Monaco. They have kept four clean sheets in seven games and only three have had at least three goals.
What to expect
The model gives Lorient 41% and Angers 32%, with the draw at 27% and 1.4 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely score is 1-1 (13%), then 0-1 (11%) and 1-0 and 1-2 (9%). That is 2.5 in total: Under 2.5 is at 54%, both teams to score at 51%, a Lorient clean sheet at 31%.
Our prediction
Angers vs Lorient · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Under 3.5
At most 3 goals in total
75% estimated probability
The model expects 2.5 goals in total. Lorient have conceded 6 in seven games and kept four clean sheets; Angers, though, conceded 5 in their last game, against Marseille.
X2 & Under 3.5
Lorient avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total
51% estimated probability
Lorient have won three of their last five and have the less-beaten defence of the two; Angers have lost their last two. The model gives Angers 32% to win: the draw or an away win together are rated at 68%.
2
Lorient win
41% estimated probability
Lorient have won their last two games and have taken 4 points from three away; Angers have lost their last two and conceded 15 goals in seven. The model gives the away win 41% and the draw 27%.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.