Ligue 1 · Matchday 8 · Sun 25 Oct · 17:15 (Italian time)
Auxerre vs Le Mans: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Auxerre, twelfth on 9 points, host Le Mans, sixteenth on 6, on Sunday at 17:15 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 3-1 win at Le Havre and have won three of their last five; Le Mans have lost their last two, the latest 3-0 at home to Toulouse.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeAuxerre | AwayLe Mans |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th9 points | 16th6 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–0–4 | 1–3–3 |
| Goals for–against | 11–171.6–2.4 per match | 10–151.4–2.1 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 3 matches | 5in 4 matches |
| Points away | 3in 4 matches | 1in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 7 | 6 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 7 | 6 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 7 | 0 of 7 |
The analysis
Auxerre: both teams scored in six games out of seven
Three wins and four defeats, 11 goals scored and 17 conceded (2.4 a game). Both teams have scored in six of their seven games and six have had at least three goals; Auxerre have kept one clean sheet. At home they have taken 6 points from three games, away 3 from four. They have won three of their last five, the latest 3-1 at Le Havre.
Le Mans: no clean sheets in seven games
One win, three draws and three defeats, 10 goals scored and 15 conceded. They have never kept a clean sheet; both teams have scored in six of their seven games and six have had at least three goals. At home they have taken 5 points from four games, away 1 from three. They have lost their last two, the latest 3-0 at home to Toulouse.
What to expect
The model gives Auxerre 47% and Le Mans 31%, with the draw at 22% and 2.0 expected goals to 1.6: 3.6 in total. The most likely scores are 1-1 and 2-1 (9%), then 1-2 and 2-2 (7%). Over 2.5 is at 69%, both teams to score at 68%.
Our prediction
Auxerre vs Le Mans · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
69% estimated probability
Six of Auxerre’s seven games and six of Le Mans’s have had at least three goals. The model expects 3.6 in total.
Auxerre 2+ goals
Auxerre score at least twice
59% estimated probability
Auxerre have scored 11 goals in seven games, 1.6 a game, and Le Mans have conceded 15 and never kept a clean sheet. The model gives the hosts 2.0 expected goals.
1 & Over 2.5
Auxerre win and at least 3 goals in total
36% estimated probability
Auxerre have taken 6 points from three at home, Le Mans 1 from three away. The model gives the hosts 47%. 2-1 (9%), one of the two most likely scores, fits the combination.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.