Ligue 1 · Matchday 8 · Sat 24 Oct · 20:45 (Italian time)
Lens vs Paris FC: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Lens, eighth on 10 points, host Paris FC on Saturday at 20:45 (Italian time). The hosts have won their last two games, the latest 3-1 at Troyes, and both teams have scored in six of their seven; Paris FC, third on 14, beat Rennes 4-3.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeLens | AwayParis FC |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 8th10 points | 3rd14 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–1–3 | 4–2–1 |
| Goals for–against | 14–112.0–1.6 per match | 12–71.7–1.0 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 3 matches | 10in 4 matches |
| Points away | 4in 4 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
The analysis
Lens: at least three goals in six games out of seven
Three wins, a draw and three defeats, 14 goals scored and 11 conceded. Six of their seven games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in six; they have never kept a clean sheet. At home they have taken 6 points from three games, away 4 from four. They have won their last two, the latest 3-1 at Troyes.
Paris FC: 10 points from four home games
Four wins, two draws and a defeat, 12 goals scored and 7 conceded. At home they have taken 10 points from four games, away 4 from three; they come off a 4-3 win over Rennes. They have kept three clean sheets in seven games, four have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in three.
What to expect
The model gives Lens 40% and Paris FC 36%, with the draw at 24% and 1.5 expected goals to 1.4: 3.0 in total. The most likely score is 1-1 (11%), then 2-1 (9%), 1-2 and 1-0 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 57%, both teams to score at 59%.
Our prediction
Lens vs Paris FC · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
79% estimated probability
The model expects 3.0 goals in total: two are enough. Six of Lens’s seven games have had at least three goals.
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
57% estimated probability
Six of Lens’s seven games and four of Paris FC’s have had at least three goals, and Lens have never kept a clean sheet. Paris FC, though, have kept a clean sheet three times: Over 2.5 is at 57%.
X2 & both teams score
Paris FC avoid defeat and both teams score
38% estimated probability
Paris FC have lost just one game in seven and come off a 4-3 win over Rennes; both teams have scored in six of Lens’s seven games. The model gives the visitors 36% and the draw 24%.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.