Ligue 1 · Matchday 8 · Sun 25 Oct · 17:15 (Italian time)
Marseille vs Le Havre: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Marseille, ninth on 9 points, host Le Havre, bottom on 2, on Sunday at 17:15 (Italian time). The hosts have won their last two games, the latest 5-2 at Angers; Le Havre have yet to win this season and come off a 3-1 home defeat to Auxerre.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeMarseille | AwayLe Havre |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th9 points | 18th2 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–0–4 | 0–2–5 |
| Goals for–against | 14–102.0–1.4 per match | 5–110.7–1.6 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 3 matches | 1in 4 matches |
| Points away | 6in 4 matches | 1in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 7 | 1 of 7 |
The analysis
Marseille: 6 points from four away games, 3 from three at home
Three wins and four defeats, 14 goals scored and 10 conceded. At home they have taken 3 points from three games, away 6 from four; they have won their last two, the latest 5-2 at Angers. They have kept two clean sheets, four of their seven games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in three.
Le Havre: no wins in seven games
Two draws and five defeats, 5 goals scored and 11 conceded. At home they have taken 1 point from four games, away 1 from three; they come off a 3-1 home defeat to Auxerre and have lost four of their last five. They have kept one clean sheet and both teams have scored in four games; three have had at least three goals.
What to expect
The model gives Marseille 63% and Le Havre 16%, with the draw at 21% and 2.0 expected goals to 0.9. The most likely scores are 1-0 and 2-0 (11%), then 1-1 and 2-1 (10%). Le Havre have scored 5 goals in seven games: a Marseille clean sheet is rated at 41%, Over 2.5 at 54%.
Our prediction
Marseille vs Le Havre · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Le Havre under 1.5 goals
Le Havre score at most once
78% estimated probability
Le Havre have scored 5 goals in seven games, 0.7 a game, and have taken just 2 points. The model gives them 0.9 expected goals.
Marseille 2+ goals
Marseille score at least twice
59% estimated probability
Marseille have scored 14 goals in seven games, 2.0 a game, including 5 at Angers last time out; Le Havre have conceded 11. The model gives the hosts 2.0 expected goals.
Marseille win by 2+ goals
Marseille win by at least two goals
38% estimated probability
The model gives Marseille 63%. 2-0 (11%) fits the choice, 1-0 (11%) and 2-1 (10%) do not. At home, too, Marseille have taken 3 points from three games.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.