Ligue 1 · Matchday 8 · Sun 25 Oct · 15:00 (Italian time)
Monaco vs Lille: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Monaco, fifth on 14 points, host Lille, fourth on the same total, on Sunday at 15:00 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 1-0 defeat at Lorient; Lille drew 1-1 at home to Brest and have lost just one game in seven.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeMonaco | AwayLille |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th14 points | 4th14 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–2–1 | 4–2–1 |
| Goals for–against | 10–61.4–0.9 per match | 10–51.4–0.7 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 3 matches | 8in 4 matches |
| Points away | 7in 4 matches | 6in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 7 | 2 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
The analysis
Monaco: 14 points and 6 goals conceded in seven games
Four wins, two draws and a defeat, 10 goals scored and 6 conceded. At home they have taken 7 points from three games, away 7 from four; they come off a 1-0 defeat at Lorient. They have kept two clean sheets, both teams have scored in four of their seven games and only three have had at least three goals.
Lille: four clean sheets in seven games
Four wins, two draws and a defeat, 10 goals scored and 5 conceded. At home they have taken 8 points from four games, away 6 from three; they come off a 1-1 draw at home to Brest. They have kept four clean sheets in seven games and only two have had at least three goals; both teams have scored in three.
What to expect
The model gives Monaco 42% and Lille 29%, with the draw at 29% and 1.2 expected goals to 1.0: 2.2 in total, the lowest figure of the Ligue 1 round. The most likely scores are 1-0 and 1-1 (13%), then 0-0 and 0-1 (11%). At least one team failing to score is rated at 55%, Under 2.5 at 61%, a Monaco clean sheet at 37%.
Our prediction
Monaco vs Lille · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Lille under 1.5 goals
Lille score at most once
74% estimated probability
The model gives Lille 1.0 expected goals: Monaco have conceded 6 goals in seven games, 0.9 a game, and kept two clean sheets. Lille, though, have scored 10 in seven games and won four.
Both teams to score: no
At least one team fails to score
55% estimated probability
Lille have kept a clean sheet in four of seven games and both teams have scored in only three; in Monaco’s games it is four of seven. The model expects 2.2 goals in total, the lowest figure of the Ligue 1 round.
Monaco clean sheet
Monaco do not concede
37% estimated probability
Monaco have kept a clean sheet in two of seven games. 1-0 (13%) and 0-0 (11%), among the four most likely scores, fit the choice; Lille have scored 10 goals in seven games and lost only once.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.