Ligue 1 · Matchday 8 · Sun 25 Oct · 20:45 (Italian time)
PSG vs Lyon: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
PSG, second on 14 points, host Lyon, top on the same total, on Sunday at 20:45 (Italian time). The hosts have won their last four games, the latest 3-1 at Strasbourg, and both teams have scored in six of their seven; Lyon beat Nice 2-1.
The numbers
| Stat | HomePSG | AwayLyon |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd14 points | 1st14 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–2–1 | 4–2–1 |
| Goals for–against | 14–92.0–1.3 per match | 13–51.9–0.7 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 2 matches | 10in 4 matches |
| Points away | 11in 5 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
The analysis
PSG: four wins in a row, 11 points from five away games
Four wins, two draws and a defeat, 14 goals scored and 9 conceded. They have played only two home games, taking 3 points, and have taken 11 from five away; they have won their last four, the latest 3-1 at Strasbourg. Six of their seven games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in six; they have kept one clean sheet.
Lyon: top with 5 goals conceded in seven games
Four wins, two draws and a defeat, 13 goals scored and 5 conceded. At home they have taken 10 points from four games, away 4 from three; they come off a 2-1 win over Nice. They have kept three clean sheets in seven games, four have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four.
What to expect
The model gives PSG 50% and Lyon 25%, with the draw at 25% and 1.6 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-1 (12%), 1-0 (11%), then 2-1 (10%) and 2-0 (9%). Both teams have scored in six of PSG’s seven games: both teams to score is rated at 53%, Over 2.5 at 51%.
Our prediction
PSG vs Lyon · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
PSG win or draw
75% estimated probability
PSG have won their last four games and have taken 11 points from five away games, but have played only two at home (3 points). Lyon, top of the table, have conceded 5 goals in seven games. The model gives PSG 50% and the draw 25%.
Both teams to score
Both teams score
53% estimated probability
Both teams have scored in six of PSG’s seven games and four of Lyon’s. Lyon, though, have kept three clean sheets: the model gives both teams to score 53%.
1X & both teams score
PSG avoid defeat and both teams score
41% estimated probability
The model gives PSG 50% and the draw 25%; 1-1 (12%) and 2-1 (10%), among the four most likely scores, fit the combination.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.