Premier League · Matchday 8 · Sat 24 Oct · 13:30 (Italian time)
Aston Villa vs Manchester City: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Manchester City, top with a perfect 21 points from seven games, visit Aston Villa on Saturday at 13:30 (Italian time). Villa are twelfth on 8 points: they have taken 7 points from four away games but only one from three at home, and come off a 1-0 win at Newcastle.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeAston Villa | AwayManchester City |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th8 points | 1st21 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–2–3 | 7–0–0 |
| Goals for–against | 7–111.0–1.6 per match | 19–72.7–1.0 per match |
| Points at home | 1in 3 matches | 12in 4 matches |
| Points away | 7in 4 matches | 9in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 7 | 5 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
The analysis
Aston Villa: one point from three home games
Two wins, two draws and three defeats, 7 goals scored and 11 conceded. Villa have taken 1 point from three home games and 7 from four away; last time out they won 1-0 at Newcastle. They have kept two clean sheets and both teams have scored in three of their games.
Manchester City: seven wins out of seven
Seven wins, 19 goals scored and 7 conceded: City are the only side with a perfect record in the Premier League and have also won all three away games, for 9 points. They have kept three clean sheets; last time out they beat Ipswich Town 3-2. Five of their seven games have had at least three goals.
What to expect
The model gives Manchester City 60% and Aston Villa 19%, with 2.0 expected goals to 1.0. The four most likely scores are all at 10%: 1-2, 1-1, 0-2 and 0-1. Villa have taken just one point from three home games. Both teams to score is rated at 56%, Over 2.5 at 59%; a City clean sheet is at 36%.
Our prediction
Aston Villa vs Manchester City · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Manchester City win or draw
81% estimated probability
City have won all seven games, including the three away; Villa have taken 1 point from three at home. The model gives City 60% and the draw 21%.
Manchester City 2+ goals
Manchester City score at least twice
60% estimated probability
City score 2.7 goals a game and Villa have conceded 11 in seven, with two clean sheets. The model gives City 2.0 expected goals.
2 & Over 2.5
Manchester City win and at least 3 goals in total
41% estimated probability
To a City win we add at least three goals: five of City’s seven games and four of Villa’s have gone over 2.5, and the model expects 3.0 in total.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.