Premier League · Matchday 8 · Sun 25 Oct · 15:00 (Italian time)
Liverpool vs Brighton: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Liverpool host Brighton on Sunday at 15:00 (Italian time). The Reds are fifth on 12 points and have taken 10 points from four away games but only 2 from three at Anfield; Brighton, third on 16, have the best attack in the Premier League with 23 goals and come off a 5-0 win over Crystal Palace.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeLiverpool | AwayBrighton |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 5th12 points | 3rd16 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–3–1 | 5–1–1 |
| Goals for–against | 9–81.3–1.1 per match | 23–53.3–0.7 per match |
| Points at home | 2in 3 matches | 10in 4 matches |
| Points away | 10in 4 matches | 6in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 7 | 5 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 7 | 2 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 7 | 5 of 7 |
The analysis
Liverpool: 2 points from three games at Anfield
Three wins, three draws and a defeat, 9 goals scored and 8 conceded. At Anfield Liverpool have taken 2 points from three games, away 10 from four; last time out they won 2-1 at Brentford. They have kept three clean sheets and both teams have scored in three of their games.
Brighton: 23 goals in seven games and five clean sheets
Five wins, a draw and a defeat, 23 goals scored and 5 conceded: Brighton have the best attack in the Premier League, more than three goals a game, and have kept five clean sheets. They have won their last four, the latest 5-0 against Crystal Palace; at home they have taken 10 points from four games, away 6 from three.
What to expect
The model gives Brighton 45% and Liverpool 31%, with 1.6 expected goals to 1.3. The most likely score is 1-1 (11%), then 1-2 (9%) and 0-1 (8%). Five of Brighton’s games and four of Liverpool’s have had at least three goals: Over 2.5 is at 57%, both teams to score at 59%.
Our prediction
Liverpool vs Brighton · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Brighton win or draw
69% estimated probability
Brighton are third on 16 points and, with Arsenal, have the best defence in the Premier League (5 goals conceded); Liverpool have taken 2 points from three at Anfield. The model gives the draw 24% and Brighton 45%.
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
57% estimated probability
Five of Brighton’s seven games and four of Liverpool’s have had at least three goals; Brighton have scored 23, 3.3 a game. The model expects 3.0 in total.
2
Brighton win
45% estimated probability
Brighton have won their last four games and have kept five clean sheets in seven. Liverpool have 2 points from three at Anfield; an away win is the boldest choice, at 45% in the model.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.