Premier League · Matchday 8 · Sun 25 Oct · 15:00 (Italian time)
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Crystal Palace and Newcastle meet on Sunday at 15:00 (Italian time) with two of the most-beaten defences in the Premier League: 17 goals conceded by the hosts, 14 by the visitors. Palace, fourteenth on 7 points, come off a 5-0 defeat at Brighton; Newcastle, eleventh on 8, lost 1-0 at home to Aston Villa.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeCrystal Palace | AwayNewcastle |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th7 points | 11th8 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–1–4 | 2–2–3 |
| Goals for–against | 9–171.3–2.4 per match | 10–141.4–2.0 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 3 matches | 5in 4 matches |
| Points away | 4in 4 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 7 | 5 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 7 | 5 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 7 | 1 of 7 |
The analysis
Crystal Palace: the most-beaten defence in the Premier League
Two wins, a draw and four defeats, 9 goals scored and 17 conceded: no side has let in more. Palace have kept just one clean sheet and come off a 5-0 defeat at Brighton. At home they have taken 3 points from three games, away 4 from four. Five of their seven games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four.
Newcastle: both teams have scored in five games out of seven
Two wins, two draws and three defeats, 10 goals scored and 14 conceded. Both teams have scored in five of their seven games and five have had at least three goals; they have kept one clean sheet. At home they have taken 5 points from four games, away 3 from three. Last time out they lost 1-0 to Aston Villa.
What to expect
The model gives Newcastle 41%, Crystal Palace 37% and the draw 23%, with 1.8 expected goals to 1.7 and 3.4 in total, the highest figure of the Premier League round. The most likely score is 1-1 (10%), then 1-2 and 2-1 (8%). Both teams to score is rated at 67%, the highest of the round, and Over 2.5 at 66%.
Our prediction
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Both teams to score
Both teams score
67% estimated probability
Both teams have scored in four of Palace’s seven games and five of Newcastle’s; both sides have kept just one clean sheet. The model gives Palace 1.7 expected goals and Newcastle 1.8.
Newcastle 2+ goals
Newcastle score at least twice
52% estimated probability
Palace have conceded 17 goals in seven games, 2.4 a game, more than any other side. Newcastle have scored 10 and the model gives them 1.8 expected goals.
X2 & Over 2.5
Newcastle avoid defeat and at least 3 goals in total
40% estimated probability
To a draw or a Newcastle win we add at least three goals: five of seven games for both sides have had them, and the model expects 3.4 in total.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.