Serie A · Matchday 8 · Sun 25 Oct · 12:30 (Italian time)
Inter vs Fiorentina: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Leaders Inter, unbeaten and top on 19 points, host Fiorentina on Sunday at 12:30 (Italian time), with the clocks just turned back an hour. The Viola are eighteenth on 4 points and have the most-beaten defence in the league, 17 goals in seven games. Lautaro Martínez, Curtis Jones and Pavard are out for Inter.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeInter | AwayFiorentina |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st19 points | 18th4 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 6–1–0 | 1–1–5 |
| Goals for–against | 21–93.0–1.3 per match | 8–171.1–2.4 per match |
| Points at home | 12in 4 matches | 1in 4 matches |
| Points away | 7in 3 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 7 | 6 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 7 | 5 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 7 | 0 of 7 |
The analysis
Inter: 21 goals in seven games
Six wins and a draw, 21 goals scored and 9 conceded: the best attack in Serie A, three goals a game. Inter have won all four home games at San Siro, taken 7 points from three away games and last time out beat Bologna 3-1. Six of their seven games have had at least three goals. Lautaro Martínez, Curtis Jones and Pavard are out; Stones is aiming for the 31 October derby.
Fiorentina: the most-beaten defence in the league
One win, a draw and five defeats, 8 goals scored and 17 conceded, without ever keeping a clean sheet: they have lost four of their last five. At home they have taken 1 point from four games, away 3 from three; they come off a 3-1 home defeat to Como. Mastantuono has scored 3 of the 8 goals. Atta and Parisi are out.
What to expect
The model gives Inter 79% and Fiorentina 9%, with 3.1 expected goals to 1.0, the highest figure of the Serie A round. The most likely scores are 3-1, 3-0, 2-1 and 2-0, all at 8%. Over 2.5 is at 78%, both teams to score at 61%; a Fiorentina clean sheet is rated at 4%. Thuram has a 46% chance of scoring, the highest of the round; Esposito follows at 34%.
Our prediction
Inter vs Fiorentina · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
78% estimated probability
Inter have scored 21 goals in seven games and Fiorentina have conceded 17: six of seven games for both sides have had at least three goals. The model expects 4.1 in total.
Inter win by 2+ goals
Inter win by at least two goals
60% estimated probability
Inter have won all four games at San Siro, Fiorentina have 1 point from four at home and concede 2.4 goals a game. The model gives Inter 79%: roughly three wins in four come by two goals or more.
Marcus Thuram to score
Marcus Thuram scores at least once
46% estimated probability
He has 4 league goals and faces the most-beaten defence in Serie A. Lautaro Martínez is out until after the November break, while the model gives Inter 3.1 expected goals.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Inter clean sheet
- 36%
- Fiorentina clean sheet
- 4%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.