Serie A · Matchday 8 · Sun 25 Oct · 18:00 (Italian time)
Lecce vs Juventus: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Juventus visit Lecce on Sunday at 18:00 (Italian time) after a 3-0 home defeat to Lazio. The Bianconeri are eighth on 11 points and have six players out: Conceição, Yildiz, Ekhator, K. Thuram, Locatelli and Grabara. Lecce, twelfth on 9, won 3-0 at Udinese.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeLecce | AwayJuventus |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th9 points | 8th11 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–0–4 | 3–2–2 |
| Goals for–against | 9–121.3–1.7 per match | 9–81.3–1.1 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 3 matches | 7in 4 matches |
| Points away | 6in 4 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 7 | 2 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
The analysis
Lecce: both teams have scored in only two games
Three wins and four defeats, 9 goals scored and 12 conceded. Both teams have scored in only two Lecce games, but five have produced at least three goals; they have kept two clean sheets, the latest at Udinese. At home they have taken 3 points from three games, away 6 from four. Coulibaly, Ilić and Berisha are out.
Juventus: three clean sheets, but six absentees
Three wins, two draws and two defeats, 9 goals scored and 8 conceded. Juventus have kept three clean sheets, but last time out they lost 3-0 at home to Lazio. They have taken 7 points from four home games and 4 from three away. Conceição, Yildiz, Ekhator, K. Thuram, Locatelli and Grabara are out.
What to expect
The model gives Juventus 51% and Lecce 24%, with 1.6 expected goals to 1.0. The most likely scores are 1-1 and 0-1 (12%), then 1-2 (10%) and 0-2 (9%). Only two of Juventus’s seven games have had at least three goals: Over 2.5 at 49%, both teams to score at 51%. Kolo Muani has a 30% chance of scoring, the highest figure for Juventus; he has one league goal and is the penalty taker.
Our prediction
Lecce vs Juventus · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Juventus win or draw
76% estimated probability
Lecce have lost four of seven and have taken 3 points from three at home; Juventus have lost two. The model gives the draw 25% and Juventus 51%.
X2 & Under 3.5
Juventus avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total
55% estimated probability
To Juventus avoiding defeat we add a ceiling of three goals: the model expects 2.6 in total and only two of Juventus’s seven games have had at least three.
Juventus clean sheet
Juventus do not concede
36% estimated probability
Juventus have kept a clean sheet in three of seven games, while Lecce have scored 9 goals in seven and have 1.0 expected goals. It is the boldest pick of the game: a Juventus clean sheet is rated at 36%.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Lecce clean sheet
- 20%
- Juventus clean sheet
- 36%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.