Serie A · Matchday 8 · Sat 24 Oct · 20:45 (Italian time)
Lazio vs Parma: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Lazio, second on 19 points and still unbeaten, host Parma on Saturday evening at 20:45 (Italian time) after a 3-0 win over Juventus in Turin. Parma are nineteenth on 4 points and have the worst attack in the league, 4 goals in seven games. Gudmundsson and Rovella are out for the hosts, Marusic is a doubt.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeLazio | AwayParma |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd19 points | 19th4 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 6–1–0 | 1–1–5 |
| Goals for–against | 14–42.0–0.6 per match | 4–130.6–1.9 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 3 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Points away | 12in 4 matches | 0in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 7 | 4 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 7 | 3 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 4 of 7 | 0 of 7 |
The analysis
Lazio: four clean sheets in seven games
Six wins and a draw, 14 goals scored and 4 conceded: only Roma have let in fewer (3). Lazio have kept a clean sheet in four of seven games and have won all four away matches, while at the Olimpico they have taken 7 points from three games. Last time out they beat Juventus 3-0.
Parma: the worst attack in the league
One win, a draw and five defeats, 4 goals scored and 13 conceded: nobody has scored less and Parma have never kept a clean sheet. Their only win and only draw came at home (4 points from four games); away they have no points from three. They come off a 3-0 home defeat to Torino. Elphege (appendicitis), Almqvist and Nicolussi Caviglia are out.
What to expect
The model gives Lazio 74% and Parma 9%, with 2.2 expected goals to 0.6. The most likely score is 2-0 (15%), then 1-0 (14%) and 3-0 (11%). A Lazio clean sheet is rated at 55%, the highest figure of the Serie A round; both teams to score is at 40%. Zaccagni has a 33% chance of scoring, Noslin 32%.
Our prediction
Lazio vs Parma · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1
Lazio win
74% estimated probability
Lazio have won six of seven and have not lost at the Olimpico yet; Parma have lost five of seven and have no points away from home.
Lazio clean sheet
Lazio do not concede
55% estimated probability
Lazio have kept a clean sheet in four of seven games, while Parma have scored 4 goals in seven, the fewest in the league. The model gives them 0.6 expected goals.
Not both score & Under 2.5
At least one team fails to score and at most 2 goals
40% estimated probability
To the clean sheet we add a ceiling on goals: the model’s two most likely scores, 2-0 (15%) and 1-0 (14%), both fit.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.
Fantasy football
- Lazio clean sheet
- 55%
- Parma clean sheet
- 11%
Our Serie A fantasy football tips (who to pick, who to avoid and a wildcard) are in Italian.