Bundesliga · Matchday 7 · Sat 24 Oct · 15:30 (Italian time)
Augsburg vs Union Berlin: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Augsburg, tenth on 8 points, host Union Berlin on Saturday at 15:30 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 4-3 defeat at Elversberg and all six of their games have had at least three goals; Union, seventeenth on 5, drew 0-0 at home to Borussia Dortmund.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeAugsburg | AwayUnion Berlin |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 10th8 points | 17th5 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–2–2 | 1–2–3 |
| Goals for–against | 16–122.7–2.0 per match | 5–170.8–2.8 per match |
| Points at home | 5in 3 matches | 5in 4 matches |
| Points away | 3in 3 matches | 0in 2 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 6 | 2 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 6 | 2 of 6 |
The analysis
Augsburg: at least three goals in all six games
Two wins, two draws and two defeats, 16 goals scored and 12 conceded (2.7 and 2.0 a game). All six of their games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in five; they have kept one clean sheet. At home they have taken 5 points from three games, away 3 from three. They come off a 4-3 defeat at Elversberg.
Union Berlin: 17 goals conceded in six games
One win, two draws and three defeats, 5 goals scored and 17 conceded (0.8 and 2.8 a game). At home they have taken 5 points from four games, away none from two; they come off a 0-0 draw with Borussia Dortmund. They have kept two clean sheets and four of their six games have had at least three goals, but both teams have scored in only two.
What to expect
The model gives Augsburg 66% and Union 18%, with 2.7 expected goals to 1.4: 4.1 in total, the highest figure of the Bundesliga round. The most likely scores are 2-1 (9%), 3-1 (8%), then 1-1 and 2-0 (6%). Over 2.5 is at 77%, both teams to score at 70%.
Our prediction
Augsburg vs Union Berlin · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
77% estimated probability
All six of Augsburg’s games and four of Union’s have had at least three goals; the model expects 4.1 in total.
1X & Over 2.5
Augsburg avoid defeat and at least 3 goals in total
64% estimated probability
The model gives Augsburg 66% and the draw 17%. Union have conceded 17 goals in six games and have taken no points from two away games; 2-1 and 3-1, the most likely scores, both have at least three goals.
Augsburg win by 2+ goals
Augsburg win by at least two goals
45% estimated probability
The model gives Augsburg 2.7 expected goals to 1.4, and 3-1 (8%) and 2-0 (6%) are among the four most likely scores. Augsburg, though, have conceded 12 goals in six games, four of them in their last away game.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.