Bundesliga · Matchday 7 · Fri 23 Oct · 20:30 (Italian time)
Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Stuttgart and Borussia Mönchengladbach open matchday 7 of the Bundesliga on Friday at 20:30 (Italian time). Stuttgart are thirteenth on 6 points and come off a 1-0 defeat at Hamburg; Gladbach are bottom on zero, the only side in the five leagues without a point, and lost 2-1 at home to Hoffenheim.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeStuttgart | AwayBorussia Mönchengladbach |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th6 points | 18th0 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–0–4 | 0–0–6 |
| Goals for–against | 8–101.3–1.7 per match | 8–201.3–3.3 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 2 matches | 0in 3 matches |
| Points away | 3in 4 matches | 0in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 6 | 6 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 6 | 0 of 6 |
The analysis
Stuttgart: three points from two home games
Two wins and four defeats, 8 goals scored and 10 conceded. They have played only two home games, taking 3 points, and have taken another 3 from four away; they come off a 1-0 defeat at Hamburg. Three of their six games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in three. They have kept one clean sheet.
Borussia Mönchengladbach: no points and 20 goals conceded
Six defeats in six games, 8 goals scored and 20 conceded (3.3 a game): the most-beaten defence in the Bundesliga. All six of their games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four; they have never kept a clean sheet. They have lost three at home and three away, the latest 2-1 at home to Hoffenheim.
What to expect
The model gives Stuttgart 68% and Gladbach 15%, with 2.5 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 2-1 and 2-0 (9%), then 3-1 and 1-1 (8%). All six of Gladbach’s games have had at least three goals: Over 2.5 is at 69%, both teams to score at 61%.
Our prediction
Stuttgart vs Borussia Mönchengladbach · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Stuttgart 2+ goals
Stuttgart score at least twice
71% estimated probability
Gladbach have conceded 20 goals in six games, 3.3 a game, and have never kept a clean sheet. The model gives Stuttgart 2.5 expected goals, although the hosts have scored 8 in six games and lost 1-0 at Hamburg.
1 & Over 1.5
Stuttgart win and at least 2 goals in total
61% estimated probability
Gladbach have lost all six games and the model gives Stuttgart a 68% chance of winning. 2-1 and 2-0, the most likely scores (9% each), fit the combination; 1-0 does not.
Stuttgart win by 2+ goals
Stuttgart win by at least two goals
46% estimated probability
Gladbach have no points and have conceded 20 goals. 2-0 (9%) and 3-1 (8%), among the four most likely scores, fit the choice. Stuttgart, though, have played only two home games and taken 3 points.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.