Bundesliga · Matchday 7 · Sat 24 Oct · 18:30 (Italian time)
Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Borussia Dortmund, second on 14 points and still unbeaten, host Eintracht Frankfurt on Saturday at 18:30 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 0-0 draw at Union Berlin; Eintracht, eleventh on 8, beat Cologne 1-0.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeBorussia Dortmund | AwayEintracht Frankfurt |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd14 points | 11th8 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–2–0 | 2–2–2 |
| Goals for–against | 11–41.8–0.7 per match | 10–161.7–2.7 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 3 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Points away | 7in 3 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 6 | 5 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 4 of 6 | 1 of 6 |
The analysis
Borussia Dortmund: 4 goals conceded in six games
Four wins and two draws, 11 goals scored and 4 conceded: no defeats and the least-beaten defence in the Bundesliga. They have kept four clean sheets in six games and have taken 7 points at home and 7 away, from three games each. They come off a 0-0 draw at Union Berlin. Three of their six games have had at least three goals.
Eintracht Frankfurt: 16 goals conceded in six games
Two wins, two draws and two defeats, 10 goals scored and 16 conceded (2.7 a game). Five of their six games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four; they have kept one clean sheet, in their latest game, the 1-0 over Cologne. At home they have taken 4 points from three games, away 4 from three.
What to expect
The model gives Dortmund 68% and Eintracht 14%, with 2.4 expected goals to 1.0. The most likely scores are 2-0 and 2-1 (10%), then 1-0 and 1-1 (8%). Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in four of six games: a clean sheet is rated at 37%, Over 2.5 at 66%.
Our prediction
Borussia Dortmund vs Eintracht Frankfurt · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Borussia Dortmund 2+ goals
Borussia Dortmund score at least twice
69% estimated probability
Dortmund have scored 11 goals in six games, 1.8 a game, and Eintracht have conceded 16, 2.7 a game. The model gives the hosts 2.4 expected goals; last time out, though, they were held to a 0-0 draw by Union.
1 & Over 1.5
Borussia Dortmund win and at least 2 goals in total
60% estimated probability
Dortmund have not lost any of their six games and the model gives them a 68% chance of winning. 2-0 and 2-1, the most likely scores (10% each), fit the combination; 1-0 (8%) does not.
Borussia Dortmund clean sheet
Borussia Dortmund do not concede
37% estimated probability
Dortmund have kept a clean sheet in four of six games and, with 4 goals conceded, have the least-beaten defence in the Bundesliga. Eintracht have scored 10 goals in six games, 1.7 a game; a Dortmund clean sheet is rated at 37%.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.