Bundesliga · Matchday 7 · Sat 24 Oct · 15:30 (Italian time)
RB Leipzig vs Elversberg: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
RB Leipzig, seventh on 9 points, host Elversberg on Saturday at 15:30 (Italian time). The hosts have won all three of their home games but have no points away, and come off a 6-1 defeat at Bayern Munich; Elversberg, sixth on 10, beat Augsburg 4-3.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeRB Leipzig | AwayElversberg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th9 points | 6th10 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–0–3 | 3–1–2 |
| Goals for–against | 16–112.7–1.8 per match | 12–112.0–1.8 per match |
| Points at home | 9in 3 matches | 6in 3 matches |
| Points away | 0in 3 matches | 4in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 6 | 1 of 6 |
The analysis
RB Leipzig: 9 points from 9 at home, none away
Three wins and three defeats, 16 goals scored and 11 conceded. They have won all three home games (9 points) and lost all three away, the latest 6-1 at Bayern Munich. They have kept three clean sheets; five of their six games have had at least three goals, but both teams have scored in only two.
Elversberg: sixth on 10 points
Three wins, a draw and two defeats, 12 goals scored and 11 conceded. At home they have taken 6 points from three games, away 4 from three; they come off a 4-3 win over Augsburg. Four of their six games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in four. They have kept one clean sheet.
What to expect
The model gives RB Leipzig 62% and Elversberg 20%, with 2.5 expected goals to 1.4: 3.9 in total, the second-highest figure of the Bundesliga round after Augsburg v Union Berlin. The most likely scores are 2-1 (9%), then 3-1 and 1-1 (7%) and 2-0 (6%). Over 2.5 is at 74%, both teams to score at 69%.
Our prediction
RB Leipzig vs Elversberg · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
74% estimated probability
Five of Leipzig’s six games and four of Elversberg’s have had at least three goals. The model expects 3.9 in total.
1 & Over 1.5
RB Leipzig win and at least 2 goals in total
56% estimated probability
Leipzig have won their three home games and the model gives them 62%. The combination needs at least two goals in all: 2-1 (9%) and 3-1 (7%) fit, 1-0 does not.
RB Leipzig win by 2+ goals
RB Leipzig win by at least two goals
41% estimated probability
Leipzig have kept three clean sheets and score 2.7 goals a game; the model gives them 2.5 expected goals to 1.4. 3-1 (7%) and 2-0 (6%) are among the four most likely scores.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.