Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · Sun 18 Oct · 15:30 CEST
Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Freiburg are the surprise of the Bundesliga: top on 13 points, unbeaten, 14 goals scored and 4 conceded. On Sunday they visit the BayArena to face Leverkusen, fourth on 10, who come off a 4-3 win in Mainz.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeBayer Leverkusen | AwayFreiburg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th10 points | 1st13 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–1–1 | 4–1–0 |
| Goals for–against | 14–82.8–1.6 per match | 14–42.8–0.8 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 2 matches | 9in 3 matches |
| Points away | 4in 3 matches | 4in 2 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 5 | 3 of 5 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 5 | 2 of 5 |
The analysis
Bayer Leverkusen: plenty of goals every game
Three wins, a draw and a defeat, 14 goals scored and 8 conceded. At home Leverkusen have won both games; four of their five games have produced at least three goals, including last weekend’s 4-3 in Mainz.
Freiburg: unbeaten leaders
Four wins and a draw, 14 goals scored and 4 conceded, with Bayern and Dortmund the best defence in the league. Away from home Freiburg have taken 4 points from two games, and last time out they beat Schalke 2-1. Four of their five games have produced at least three goals.
What to expect
The model gives Leverkusen 46% and Freiburg 32%, with 1.9 expected goals to 1.6: 3.5 in total. The most likely scores are 1-1 and 2-1 (9%), then 1-2 and 2-2 (7%). Over 2.5 and both teams to score are at 68%: both sides have gone over 2.5 goals in four of five games.
Our prediction
Bayer Leverkusen vs Freiburg · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
68% estimated probability
Four of five games for both teams have had at least three goals, and together they have scored 28.
Both teams score & Over 2.5
Both teams score and at least 3 goals in total
59% estimated probability
Two of the best attacks in the Bundesliga, 14 goals each. We ask for both teams to score, in a game with at least three goals.
1 & Over 2.5
Bayer Leverkusen win and at least 3 goals in total
35% estimated probability
Leverkusen have won both home games, Freiburg have not lost yet. A Leverkusen win in a game with at least three goals is the boldest pick.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.