Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · Sat 17 Oct · 15:30 CEST
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Borussia Dortmund are second on 13 points and still unbeaten, but last time out they drew 2-2 at home with Werder. In Berlin they meet a Union side that is sixteenth on 4, with the second-leakiest defence in the Bundesliga, but that comes off its first clean sheet of the season in a 1-0 win over Elversberg.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeUnion Berlin | AwayBorussia Dortmund |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th4 points | 2nd13 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–1–3 | 4–1–0 |
| Goals for–against | 5–171.0–3.4 per match | 11–42.2–0.8 per match |
| Points at home | 4in 3 matches | 7in 3 matches |
| Points away | 0in 2 matches | 6in 2 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 5 | 3 of 5 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 5 | 2 of 5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 5 | 3 of 5 |
The analysis
Union Berlin: 17 goals conceded in five games
One win, a draw and three defeats, 5 goals scored and 17 conceded. All 4 of Union’s points have come at home; they lost both away games. Four of their five games have produced at least three goals.
Borussia Dortmund: unbeaten and solid
Four wins and a draw, 11 goals scored and 4 conceded: with Bayern and Freiburg, the best defence in the Bundesliga. Dortmund have won both away games and kept three clean sheets in five.
What to expect
The model gives Dortmund 64% and Union 17%, with 2.3 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-2 (10%), 0-2 (9%), 1-1 and 1-3 (8%). Union’s defence weighs: Dortmund score at least twice in 68% of cases.
Our prediction
Union Berlin vs Borussia Dortmund · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2 & Over 1.5
Borussia Dortmund avoid defeat and at least 2 goals in total
73% estimated probability
Dortmund have not lost yet and Union have conceded 17 goals in five games. To Dortmund avoiding defeat we add at least two goals in total.
2 & Over 1.5
Borussia Dortmund win and at least 2 goals in total
57% estimated probability
Dortmund have won both away games and Union concede more than three goals a game. We ask for a Dortmund win with at least two goals in the game.
Borussia Dortmund win by 2+ goals
Borussia Dortmund win by at least two goals
42% estimated probability
Union have conceded 17 goals in five games. A comfortable Dortmund win is the boldest pick, because Union have taken all their points at home.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.