Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · Sun 18 Oct · 17:30 CEST
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hoffenheim: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
The Bundesliga’s bottom two meet. Borussia Mönchengladbach are last, the only team in the league still without a point, with 18 goals conceded; Hoffenheim are second from bottom on 3 points and come off a 3-2 home defeat to Hamburg.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeBorussia Mönchengladbach | AwayHoffenheim |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 18th0 points | 17th3 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 0–0–5 | 1–0–4 |
| Goals for–against | 7–181.4–3.6 per match | 9–131.8–2.6 per match |
| Points at home | 0in 2 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Points away | 0in 3 matches | 0in 2 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 5 | 5 of 5 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 5 | 0 of 5 |
The analysis
Borussia Mönchengladbach: five defeats, 18 goals conceded
No points from five games, 7 goals scored and 18 conceded, the leakiest defence in the league. All of Gladbach’s games have produced at least three goals and they have never kept a clean sheet. Last time out they lost the derby in Cologne, 2-1.
Hoffenheim: always at least three goals
One win and four defeats, 9 goals scored and 13 conceded. Both teams have scored in every Hoffenheim game and all of them have produced at least three goals. Their only win came at home; away from home they have lost both games.
What to expect
The model gives Hoffenheim 47% and Gladbach 33%, with 2.2 expected goals to 1.9: 4.1 in total, the highest of the 48 games this week. The most likely scores are 1-2 (8%), then 2-2, 1-1 and 2-1 (7%). Both teams to score at 75%, Over 2.5 at 77%: in ten games the two sides have never kept a clean sheet.
Our prediction
Borussia Mönchengladbach vs Hoffenheim · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Both teams to score
Both teams score
75% estimated probability
Neither side has kept a clean sheet and both teams have scored in all of Hoffenheim’s games.
Over 3.5
At least 4 goals in total
58% estimated probability
Gladbach’s games have averaged 5 goals, Hoffenheim’s 4.4. The model expects 4.1.
2 & Over 2.5
Hoffenheim win and at least 3 goals in total
39% estimated probability
Gladbach have lost all five games, always with at least three goals. If Hoffenheim win, it is unlikely to be a tight game.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.