Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · Sat 17 Oct · 15:30 CEST
Schalke 04 vs Mainz: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Schalke 04, newly promoted, are thirteenth on 5 points and still without a home win; Mainz, eighth on 7, have the opposite profile: they have won both away games and taken one point from three at home. Last time out they lost 4-3 to Leverkusen, a seven-goal game.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeSchalke 04 | AwayMainz |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 13th5 points | 8th7 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–2–2 | 2–1–2 |
| Goals for–against | 4–60.8–1.2 per match | 13–102.6–2.0 per match |
| Points at home | 2in 2 matches | 1in 3 matches |
| Points away | 3in 3 matches | 6in 2 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 5 | 4 of 5 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 5 | 3 of 5 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 5 | 2 of 5 |
The analysis
Schalke 04: few goals at either end
One win, two draws and two defeats, 4 goals scored and 6 conceded: only Paderborn have scored fewer. At home Schalke have drawn both games. They have kept two clean sheets; last time out they lost 2-1 in Freiburg.
Mainz: perfect away from home
Two wins, a draw and two defeats, 13 goals scored and 10 conceded. Mainz have won both away games and taken one point from three at home. Four of their five games have produced at least three goals.
What to expect
The model gives Mainz 42% and Schalke 34%, with 1.6 expected goals to 1.5. The most likely score is 1-1 (11%), then 1-2 (9%) and 2-1 (8%). Over 1.5 at 81%, both teams to score at 62%: Mainz score 2.6 goals a game.
Our prediction
Schalke 04 vs Mainz · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
81% estimated probability
Mainz score 2.6 goals a game and four of their five games have had at least three goals. Two in total are enough.
Both teams to score
Both teams score
62% estimated probability
Mainz have scored 13 goals in five games and conceded 10. Schalke score little, but Mainz concede two a game.
X2 & both teams score
Mainz avoid defeat and both teams score
42% estimated probability
Mainz have won both away games and Schalke are still without a home win. To Mainz avoiding defeat we add both teams scoring.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.