Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · Sat 17 Oct · 18:30 CEST
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
The Bundesliga’s big game is at the Allianz Arena. Bayern are third on 11 points, unbeaten but coming off a 2-2 in Augsburg; RB Leipzig, fifth on 9, have just thrashed Eintracht 6-0 but have lost both away games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeBayern Munich | AwayRB Leipzig |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd11 points | 5th9 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–2–0 | 3–0–2 |
| Goals for–against | 16–43.2–0.8 per match | 15–53.0–1.0 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 2 matches | 9in 3 matches |
| Points away | 5in 3 matches | 0in 2 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 5 | 1 of 5 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 5 | 3 of 5 |
The analysis
Bayern Munich: best attack, more than three goals a game
Three wins and two draws, 16 goals scored and 4 conceded: Bayern have the best attack and, with Dortmund and Freiburg, the best defence in the Bundesliga. They have won both home games. Four of their five games have produced at least three goals.
RB Leipzig: perfect at home, pointless away
Three wins and two defeats, 15 goals scored and 5 conceded. All of Leipzig’s points have come at home, where they have won three out of three, most recently 6-0 against Eintracht; away from home they have lost both games. Both teams have scored only once in their games.
What to expect
The model gives Bayern 65% and Leipzig 17%, with 2.3 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 2-1 (10%), 2-0 (9%), 1-1 and 3-1 (8%). Over 2.5 is at 67%: four of five games for both teams have had at least three goals.
Our prediction
Bayern Munich vs RB Leipzig · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
67% estimated probability
Bayern score more than three goals a game and Leipzig almost three. Four of five games for both teams have had at least three goals.
1 & Over 2.5
Bayern Munich win and at least 3 goals in total
49% estimated probability
Bayern have won both home games and Leipzig have always lost away. To a Bayern win we add at least three goals.
Bayern Munich win by 2+ goals
Bayern Munich win by at least two goals
42% estimated probability
Leipzig have lost both away games and the model gives Bayern 2.3 expected goals. A win by two or more is the boldest pick.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.