Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · Fri 16 Oct · 20:30 CEST
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Cologne: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
The Bundesliga resumes on Friday night in Frankfurt. Eintracht come off a 6-0 defeat in Leipzig and are fourteenth on 5 points; Cologne, tenth on 7, won the derby with Gladbach (2-1) but have lost both away games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeEintracht Frankfurt | AwayCologne |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th5 points | 10th7 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–2–2 | 2–1–2 |
| Goals for–against | 9–161.8–3.2 per match | 8–101.6–2.0 per match |
| Points at home | 1in 2 matches | 7in 3 matches |
| Points away | 4in 3 matches | 0in 2 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 5 | 4 of 5 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 5 | 0 of 5 |
The analysis
Eintracht Frankfurt: 16 goals conceded in five games
One win, two draws and two defeats, 9 goals scored and 16 conceded: all five Eintracht games have produced at least three goals and they have never kept a clean sheet. At home they have taken a single point from two games. Last weekend was a heavy one: 6-0 in Leipzig.
Cologne: both teams always score
Two wins, a draw and two defeats, 8 goals scored and 10 conceded. Both teams have scored in every Cologne game and four of five have produced at least three goals. All 7 of their points have come at home.
What to expect
The model gives Eintracht 44% and Cologne 35%, with 2.0 expected goals to 1.8: 3.8 in total, the second-highest of the week. The most likely scores are 2-1 and 1-1 (8%), then 2-2 and 1-2 (7%). Over 2.5 at 74%, both teams to score at 72%: neither side has kept a clean sheet.
Our prediction
Eintracht Frankfurt vs Cologne · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
74% estimated probability
All of Eintracht’s games have had at least three goals, and four of Cologne’s five. Neither side has kept a clean sheet.
Eintracht Frankfurt 2+ goals
Eintracht Frankfurt score at least twice
60% estimated probability
Cologne have always conceded, 10 goals in five games, and have lost both away games. Eintracht score almost two goals a game.
1 & both teams score
Eintracht Frankfurt win and both teams score
30% estimated probability
Cologne always score: both teams have scored in all their games. If Eintracht win again, they will probably have to concede at least once.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.