Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · Sat 17 Oct · 15:30 CEST
Elversberg vs Augsburg: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Elversberg, newly promoted and in their first Bundesliga season, are ninth on 7 points and come off a 1-0 defeat in Berlin against Union; Augsburg, sixth on 8, have just held Bayern to a 2-2 draw.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeElversberg | AwayAugsburg |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th7 points | 6th8 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–1–2 | 2–2–1 |
| Goals for–against | 8–81.6–1.6 per match | 13–82.6–1.6 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 2 matches | 5in 3 matches |
| Points away | 4in 3 matches | 3in 2 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 5 | 4 of 5 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 5 | 1 of 5 |
The analysis
Elversberg: 8 goals scored, 8 conceded
Two wins, a draw and two defeats, 8 goals scored and 8 conceded. Away from home they have taken 4 points from three games, at home 3 from two, with one win. They have kept one clean sheet.
Augsburg: always at least three goals
Two wins, two draws and a defeat, 13 goals scored and 8 conceded. All five Augsburg games have produced at least three goals and in four both teams have scored. Last time out they held Bayern to a 2-2 draw.
What to expect
The model has no favourite: Elversberg 38%, Augsburg 39%, with 1.7 expected goals each. The most likely score is 1-1 (10%), then 1-2 and 2-1 (8%). Augsburg’s games have always had at least three goals: both teams to score at 67%, Over 2.5 at 66%.
Our prediction
Elversberg vs Augsburg · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Both teams to score
Both teams score
67% estimated probability
Augsburg score more than two goals a game and Elversberg have kept just one clean sheet. Both teams have scored in four of Augsburg’s five games.
Both teams score & Over 2.5
Both teams score and at least 3 goals in total
58% estimated probability
All of Augsburg’s games have ended with at least three goals. To both teams scoring we add the third goal.
1X & Over 2.5
Elversberg avoid defeat and at least 3 goals in total
38% estimated probability
The model sees a balanced game and Elversberg have already won at home. To Elversberg avoiding defeat we add at least three goals, as in all of Augsburg’s games.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.