Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · Sat 17 Oct · 15:30 CEST
Hamburg vs Stuttgart: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Hamburg and Stuttgart have the same points, 6, and the same record: two wins and three defeats. Both come off an away win: Hamburg won 3-2 in Hoffenheim, Stuttgart 2-0 in Paderborn.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeHamburg | AwayStuttgart |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th6 points | 11th6 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–0–3 | 2–0–3 |
| Goals for–against | 5–151.0–3.0 per match | 8–91.6–1.8 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 2 matches | 3in 2 matches |
| Points away | 3in 3 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 5 | 3 of 5 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 5 | 3 of 5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 5 | 1 of 5 |
The analysis
Hamburg: 15 goals conceded in five games
Hamburg have scored 5 goals and conceded 15, the fourth-leakiest defence in the league, and have never kept a clean sheet. Four of their five games have produced at least three goals. Before the 3-2 in Hoffenheim they had scored 2 goals in four games.
Stuttgart: more solid at the back
Two wins and three defeats, 8 goals scored and 9 conceded. Stuttgart have taken 3 points at home and 3 away, and in Paderborn they kept a clean sheet for the first time this season.
What to expect
The model gives Stuttgart 51% and Hamburg 27%, with 2.0 expected goals to 1.4. The most likely scores are 1-1 and 1-2 (9%). Hamburg’s defence weighs: Over 1.5 at 85%, Over 2.5 at 66%.
Our prediction
Hamburg vs Stuttgart · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
85% estimated probability
Hamburg have conceded 15 goals in five games and never kept a clean sheet. Four of their five games have had at least three goals.
Both teams score & Over 2.5
Both teams score and at least 3 goals in total
55% estimated probability
Hamburg concede three goals a game and Stuttgart have kept just one clean sheet. We ask for both teams to score, in a game with at least three goals.
2 & Over 2.5
Stuttgart win and at least 3 goals in total
38% estimated probability
Stuttgart won in Paderborn without conceding and Hamburg have lost three of five. If Stuttgart win, with this defence in front of them it will probably end with at least three goals.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.