Bundesliga · Matchday 6 · Sat 17 Oct · 15:30 CEST
Werder Bremen vs Paderborn: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Werder Bremen return to the Weserstadion after a 2-2 in Dortmund. They are seventh on 8 points and have won both home games; Paderborn, newly promoted, are fifteenth on 4 and have the weakest attack in the Bundesliga, 3 goals in five games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeWerder Bremen | AwayPaderborn |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th8 points | 15th4 points |
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–2–1 | 1–1–3 |
| Goals for–against | 10–102.0–2.0 per match | 3–70.6–1.4 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 2 matches | 3in 3 matches |
| Points away | 2in 3 matches | 1in 2 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 5 | 2 of 5 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 5 | 1 of 5 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 5 | 1 of 5 |
The analysis
Werder Bremen: both teams always score
Two wins, two draws and a defeat, 10 goals scored and 10 conceded. Both teams have scored in every Werder game and they have never kept a clean sheet. At home they have won both games.
Paderborn: three goals in five games
One win, a draw and three defeats, 3 goals scored and 7 conceded. Both teams have scored only once in Paderborn’s games and only two have produced at least three goals. Last time out they lost 2-0 at home to Stuttgart.
What to expect
The model gives Werder 54% and Paderborn 23%, with 1.8 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-1 (11%), 2-1 (10%), 1-0 and 2-0 (9%). Werder have always conceded, but Paderborn score little: both teams to score is at 57%.
Our prediction
Werder Bremen vs Paderborn · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Werder Bremen win or draw
77% estimated probability
Werder have won both home games and Paderborn have scored 3 goals in five games.
Werder Bremen 2+ goals
Werder Bremen score at least twice
55% estimated probability
Werder score two goals a game, 10 in five rounds, and Paderborn have conceded 7. Two Werder goals are enough even if their defence gives something away.
1 & Over 2.5
Werder Bremen win and at least 3 goals in total
36% estimated probability
Four of Werder’s five games have ended with at least three goals. If they win, it will probably happen again.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.