La Liga · Matchday 10 · Fri 23 Oct · 21:00 (Italian time)
Alavés vs Málaga: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Alavés host Málaga on Friday at 21:00 (Italian time), opening matchday 10 of La Liga. The hosts are seventh on 11 points but have lost four of their last five games; Málaga are bottom on 4 points, have yet to win in nine games and come off a 5-2 home defeat to Real Sociedad.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeAlavés | AwayMálaga |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 7th11 points | 20th4 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 3–2–4 | 0–4–5 |
| Goals for–against | 13–101.4–1.1 per match | 6–180.7–2.0 per match |
| Points at home | 9in 5 matches | 3in 5 matches |
| Points away | 2in 4 matches | 1in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 3 of 9 | 1 of 9 |
The analysis
Alavés: nine points out of eleven at home
Three wins, two draws and four defeats, 13 goals scored and 10 conceded. Alavés have taken 9 points from five home games, where they have won three times, and 2 from four away; they have lost four of their last five, the latest 2-1 at Celta Vigo. They have kept three clean sheets.
Málaga: still winless, with 18 goals conceded
Four draws and five defeats, 6 goals scored and 18 conceded: Málaga are bottom and still winless, conceding two goals a game. At home they have taken 3 points from five games, away 1 from four. They come off a 5-2 home defeat to Real Sociedad. They have kept one clean sheet and both teams have scored in five of their games.
What to expect
The model gives Alavés 63% and Málaga 15%, with 1.8 expected goals to 0.8. The most likely score is 1-0 (14%), then 2-0 (12%) and 1-1 and 2-1 (10%). An Alavés clean sheet is rated at 46%; both teams to score is at 45%, Over 2.5 at 48%.
Our prediction
Alavés vs Málaga · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Málaga under 1.5 goals
Málaga score at most once
82% estimated probability
Málaga have scored 6 goals in nine games, 0.7 a game, and the model gives them 0.8 expected goals. Alavés have kept three clean sheets.
Alavés 2+ goals
Alavés score at least twice
55% estimated probability
Alavés have scored 13 goals in nine games and Málaga have conceded 18, two a game. The model gives Alavés 1.8 expected goals.
Alavés win by 2+ goals
Alavés win by at least two goals
37% estimated probability
Málaga are winless and have taken 1 point from four away games; Alavés have won three of five at home. The model gives Alavés 63% and 2-0 is the second most likely score (12%).
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.