La Liga · Matchday 10 · Sat 24 Oct · 21:00 (Italian time)
Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruña: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Atlético Madrid, second on 22 points, have won their last five games and host Deportivo La Coruña on Saturday at 21:00 (Italian time). The visitors are ninth on 11 points, have drawn five of nine games, the latest 1-1 at home to Levante, and have never kept a clean sheet.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeAtlético Madrid | AwayDeportivo La Coruña |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 2nd22 points | 9th11 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 7–1–1 | 2–5–2 |
| Goals for–against | 19–82.1–0.9 per match | 13–121.4–1.3 per match |
| Points at home | 10in 4 matches | 6in 5 matches |
| Points away | 12in 5 matches | 5in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 7 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 9 | 8 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 4 of 9 | 0 of 9 |
The analysis
Atlético Madrid: five wins in a row
Seven wins, a draw and a defeat, 19 goals scored and 8 conceded. Atlético have won their last five games, the latest 1-0 at Espanyol, and have taken 10 points from four home games and 12 from five away. Seven of their nine games have had at least three goals; they have kept four clean sheets.
Deportivo La Coruña: both teams scored in eight games out of nine
Two wins, five draws and two defeats, 13 goals scored and 12 conceded. Deportivo have never kept a clean sheet and both teams have scored in eight of their nine games, but only three have had at least three goals. At home they have taken 6 points from five games, away 5 from four.
What to expect
The model gives Atlético Madrid 68% and Deportivo 12%, with 2.0 expected goals to 0.7. The most likely scores are 2-0 and 1-0 (13%), then 2-1 (10%). Deportivo have never kept a clean sheet and both teams have scored in eight of their nine games, but against a defence that has conceded 8 the model rates both teams to score at 45%.
Our prediction
Atlético Madrid vs Deportivo La Coruña · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
76% estimated probability
Atlético score 2.1 goals a game and seven of their nine games have had at least three goals. The model expects 2.8 in total.
Atlético Madrid 2+ goals
Atlético Madrid score at least twice
60% estimated probability
Deportivo have never kept a clean sheet and have conceded 12 goals in nine games. The model gives Atlético 2.0 expected goals.
Atlético Madrid win by 2+ goals
Atlético Madrid win by at least two goals
43% estimated probability
Atlético have won seven of nine, five in a row, and the model gives them 68%; 2-0 is, with 1-0, the most likely score (13%). Deportivo have conceded 12 and have never kept a clean sheet.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.