La Liga · Matchday 10 · Sun 25 Oct · 21:00 (Italian time)
Barcelona vs Real Madrid: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
It is El Clásico, on Sunday at 21:00 (Italian time). Barcelona are top with a perfect 27 points, nine wins out of nine and 39 goals scored, more than four a game; Real Madrid are third on 21 points and have won their last two, the latest 4-1 at home to Sevilla.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeBarcelona | AwayReal Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 1st27 points | 3rd21 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 9–0–0 | 7–0–2 |
| Goals for–against | 39–94.3–1.0 per match | 23–92.6–1.0 per match |
| Points at home | 12in 4 matches | 15in 5 matches |
| Points away | 15in 5 matches | 6in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 8 of 9 | 7 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 9 | 6 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 4 of 9 | 2 of 9 |
The analysis
Barcelona: nine wins out of nine
Nine wins, 39 goals scored and 9 conceded: the best attack in the five leagues, more than four goals a game. Barcelona have won all four home games and all five away, have kept four clean sheets and eight of nine games have had at least three goals. Last time out they won 5-2 at Betis.
Real Madrid: perfect at home, less so away
Seven wins and two defeats, 23 goals scored and 9 conceded. Real Madrid have won all five home games; away they have taken 6 points from four games, with two defeats. They have won their last two, the latest 4-1 against Sevilla. Seven of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in six.
What to expect
The model gives Barcelona 62% and Real Madrid 20%, with the draw at 19% and 2.4 expected goals to 1.3: at 3.8 goals in total it is the game with the most expected goals of the La Liga round. The most likely scores are 2-1 (9%), then 1-1, 3-1 and 2-0 (7%). Over 2.5 is at 73%, both teams to score at 67%.
Our prediction
Barcelona vs Real Madrid · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 2.5
At least 3 goals in total
73% estimated probability
Eight of Barcelona’s nine games and seven of Real Madrid’s have had at least three goals; the model expects 3.8 in total.
Both teams score & Over 2.5
Both teams score and at least 3 goals in total
60% estimated probability
Both teams have scored in five of Barcelona’s games and six of Real Madrid’s, and eight and seven have had at least three goals. Real Madrid have conceded in seven of nine games.
Real Madrid 2+ goals
Real Madrid score at least twice
39% estimated probability
Real Madrid score 2.6 goals a game, but away from home they have taken 6 points from four games, with two defeats. Barcelona have conceded 9 goals in nine games and kept four clean sheets. The model gives Real Madrid 1.3 expected goals: two goals is the boldest choice.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.