La Liga · Matchday 9 · Sun 18 Oct · 16:15 CEST
Celta Vigo vs Alavés: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Balaídos hosts the game with the fewest expected goals of the week. Celta Vigo are ninth on 8 points and have drawn five of eight, four of their last five; Alavés are seventh on 11, but have taken 2 points from three away games and lost three of their last four.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeCelta Vigo | AwayAlavés |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 9th8 points | 7th11 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–5–2 | 3–2–3 |
| Goals for–against | 8–61.0–0.8 per match | 12–81.5–1.0 per match |
| Points at home | 4in 4 matches | 9in 5 matches |
| Points away | 4in 4 matches | 2in 3 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 2 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 4 of 8 | 3 of 8 |
The analysis
Celta Vigo: five draws and the best defence
One win, five draws and two defeats: Celta have conceded 6 goals in eight games, the best defence in La Liga together with Athletic, and kept four clean sheets. They score little, a goal a game, and only two of their games have gone over 2.5 goals. Last time out, 0-0 in Elche.
Alavés: strong at home, fragile away
Three wins, two draws and three defeats, 12 goals scored and 8 conceded. All their wins have come at home: away from home Alavés have taken 2 points from three games. They have lost three of their last four, the latest 2-1 against Atlético Madrid.
What to expect
The model gives Celta 42% and Alavés 28%, with 1.2 expected goals to 0.9: 2.1 in total, the lowest of the 48 games. The most likely scores are 1-0 (14%), 1-1 (13%), 0-0 (12%) and 0-1 (11%). Under 2.5 is at 65% and a Celta clean sheet at 40%.
Our prediction
Celta Vigo vs Alavés · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Celta Vigo win or draw
72% estimated probability
Celta have lost only two of eight and Alavés have not won away yet: 2 points from three games.
Not both score & Under 2.5
At least one team fails to score and at most 2 goals
52% estimated probability
Celta have kept a clean sheet in half their games and only two have gone over 2.5 goals. We ask for a game with at most two goals and at least one team failing to score.
Celta Vigo clean sheet
Celta Vigo do not concede
40% estimated probability
Four clean sheets in eight games for Celta, the best defence in La Liga. Alavés struggle away from home.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.