La Liga · Matchday 9 · Mon 19 Oct · 21:00 CEST
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Monday night closes the La Liga round with two teams on 8 points. Getafe are unbeaten at home, 8 points from four games, and have never picked up a point away; Rayo Vallecano have taken 7 points at home and only one away. For Rayo it is the first game since their match against Athletic was postponed.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeGetafe | AwayRayo Vallecano |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th8 points | 13th8 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–2–4 | 2–2–3 |
| Goals for–against | 4–100.5–1.2 per match | 11–161.6–2.3 per match |
| Points at home | 8in 4 matches | 7in 3 matches |
| Points away | 0in 4 matches | 1in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 2 of 8 | 5 of 7 |
| Both teams scored | 2 of 8 | 7 of 7 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 8 | 0 of 7 |
The analysis
Getafe: unbeaten at home, pointless away
Two wins, two draws and four defeats: all of Getafe’s 8 points have come at home, where they have not lost yet. They score very little, 4 goals in eight games, and only two of their games have gone over 2.5 goals. Last time out they lost 3-0 in Barcelona.
Rayo Vallecano: both teams always score
Two wins, two draws and three defeats in seven games, 11 goals scored and 16 conceded. Both teams have scored in every Rayo game and they have never kept a clean sheet. Away from home they have taken one point from four games.
What to expect
The model has no favourite: Getafe 37%, Rayo 36%, with 1.2 expected goals each. The most likely score is 1-1 (13%), then 1-0 (11%) and 0-1 (10%). The two teams tell different stories: Getafe’s games have few goals, in Rayo’s both teams always score. The model sits in the middle, with Under 2.5 at 55% and both teams to score at 50%.
Our prediction
Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Under 3.5
At most 3 goals in total
76% estimated probability
Getafe have scored 4 goals in eight games and only two of their games have had at least three goals. Four goals would be an exception.
Under 2.5
At most 2 goals in total
55% estimated probability
At home Getafe play tight games and Rayo have taken one point from four away games. The model expects 2.5 goals in total.
1X & Under 2.5
Getafe avoid defeat and at most 2 goals in total
38% estimated probability
Getafe are unbeaten at home and Rayo have taken a single point away. To Getafe avoiding defeat we add at most two goals.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.