La Liga · Matchday 9 · Sat 17 Oct · 16:15 CEST
Villarreal vs Elche: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Villarreal have played more games away than at home, five against three, and the table shows it: they are eleventh on 8 points and lost narrowly at the Bernabéu last weekend (0-1). Elche, eighteenth on 6, come off a 0-0 with Celta and have taken 5 points from four away games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeVillarreal | AwayElche |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 11th8 points | 18th6 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–2–4 | 1–3–4 |
| Goals for–against | 13–131.6–1.6 per match | 11–171.4–2.1 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 3 matches | 1in 4 matches |
| Points away | 5in 5 matches | 5in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 8 | 5 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 8 | 6 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 8 | 1 of 8 |
The analysis
Villarreal: no clean sheets yet
Two wins, two draws and four defeats, 13 goals scored and 13 conceded: Villarreal have never kept a clean sheet, but they score regularly. Six of eight games have produced at least three goals. They have played only three times at home, with one win and two defeats.
Elche: better away than at home
One win, three draws and four defeats, 11 goals scored and 17 conceded, the third-leakiest defence in La Liga. At home Elche have taken a single point from four games, away 5 from four. Both teams have scored in six of their eight games.
What to expect
The model gives Villarreal 61% and Elche 19%, with 2.1 expected goals to 1.1: the table is harsh on Villarreal, and the model also uses an outside estimate of team strength. The most likely scores are 2-1 (10%), then 1-1, 2-0 and 1-0 (9%). Over 2.5 is at 62%.
Our prediction
Villarreal vs Elche · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Villarreal win or draw
81% estimated probability
Elche have conceded 17 goals in eight games and Villarreal score more than one and a half a game. The model puts an Elche win at 19%.
1
Villarreal win
61% estimated probability
Villarreal have played more away games than home games and lost narrowly at the Bernabéu. Against the third-leakiest defence in La Liga the model makes them clear favourites.
Villarreal win by 2+ goals
Villarreal win by at least two goals
38% estimated probability
Elche have conceded more than two goals a game, 17 in eight rounds. A comfortable Villarreal win is the boldest pick, because their own defence has always conceded too.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.