La Liga · Matchday 9 · Sat 17 Oct · 14:00 CEST
Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Atlético Madrid have won their last four and are second on 19 points, five behind Barcelona. At Cornellà they meet an Espanyol side that is twelfth on 8 and has won one of four home games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeEspanyol | AwayAtlético Madrid |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 12th8 points | 2nd19 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–2–4 | 6–1–1 |
| Goals for–against | 11–111.4–1.4 per match | 18–82.2–1.0 per match |
| Points at home | 4in 4 matches | 10in 4 matches |
| Points away | 4in 4 matches | 9in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 8 | 7 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 8 | 3 of 8 |
The analysis
Espanyol: two wins in eight games
Two wins, two draws and four defeats, 11 goals scored and 11 conceded. In front of their own fans Espanyol have taken 4 points from four games. Five of their games have produced at least three goals and in six both teams have scored. Last time out they drew 1-1 in Málaga.
Atlético Madrid: four wins in a row
Six wins, a draw and a defeat, 18 goals scored and 8 conceded. Away from home Atlético have won three of four, most recently 2-1 in Vitoria against Alavés. Seven of their eight games have produced at least three goals.
What to expect
The model gives Atlético 50% and Espanyol 25%, with 1.7 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely score is 1-1 (12%), then 0-1 (11%) and 1-2 (10%). Atlético’s clean sheet is rated at 33%: they have kept three in eight games.
Our prediction
Espanyol vs Atlético Madrid · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Atlético Madrid win or draw
75% estimated probability
Atlético have won their last four and lost only once away. Espanyol have taken 4 points from four home games.
2
Atlético Madrid win
50% estimated probability
Six wins in eight, three of four away: Atlético score more than two goals a game, and Espanyol have lost two of four at home.
Atlético Madrid clean sheet
Atlético Madrid do not concede
33% estimated probability
Atlético have kept three clean sheets in eight games. Espanyol score, 11 goals, but take little at home: a clean sheet is the boldest pick.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.