La Liga · Matchday 9 · Sun 18 Oct · 18:30 CEST
Málaga vs Real Sociedad: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Málaga, newly promoted, are bottom on 4 points and still without a win: four draws and four defeats. Real Sociedad, sixth on 13, come off two straight wins, the latest 3-2 against Deportivo.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeMálaga | AwayReal Sociedad |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 20th4 points | 6th13 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 0–4–4 | 4–1–3 |
| Goals for–against | 4–130.5–1.6 per match | 12–151.5–1.9 per match |
| Points at home | 3in 4 matches | 7in 4 matches |
| Points away | 1in 4 matches | 6in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 2 of 8 | 6 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 8 | 5 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 1 of 8 | 1 of 8 |
The analysis
Málaga: four goals in eight games
No wins, four draws and four defeats: Málaga have scored 4 goals, the lowest in La Liga along with Getafe, and conceded 13. They have taken 3 points from four home games, all from draws. Only two of their games have gone over 2.5 goals.
Real Sociedad: scoring and conceding
Four wins, a draw and three defeats, 12 goals scored and 15 conceded, with one clean sheet. Six of eight games have produced at least three goals. Away from home they have won two of four.
What to expect
The model gives Real Sociedad 44% and Málaga 30%, with 1.4 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-1 (13%) and 0-1 (12%). Málaga score little and Real Sociedad concede a lot: Under 2.5 is at 55%, both teams to score at 50%.
Our prediction
Málaga vs Real Sociedad · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Real Sociedad win or draw
70% estimated probability
Málaga have not won yet and have scored 4 goals in eight games. Real Sociedad come off two wins in a row.
X2 & Under 3.5
Real Sociedad avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total
53% estimated probability
Málaga have gone over 2.5 goals only twice in eight games and score half a goal a game. To Real Sociedad avoiding defeat we add at most three goals.
2
Real Sociedad win
44% estimated probability
Real Sociedad have won two of four away games and Málaga have never won at home. The model gives them 44% against 30%.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.