La Liga · Matchday 9 · Sun 18 Oct · 14:00 CEST
Osasuna vs Racing Santander: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Two teams on 8 points meet at El Sadar. Osasuna, sixteenth, have gone five games without a win and come off a 5-2 defeat to Betis in Seville; Racing Santander, newly promoted and fifteenth, have lost all four away games and have the leakiest defence in the league.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeOsasuna | AwayRacing Santander |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 16th8 points | 15th8 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–2–4 | 2–2–4 |
| Goals for–against | 8–181.0–2.2 per match | 13–231.6–2.9 per match |
| Points at home | 5in 4 matches | 8in 4 matches |
| Points away | 3in 4 matches | 0in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 8 | 7 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 8 | 6 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 8 | 0 of 8 |
The analysis
Osasuna: five games without a win
Two wins, two draws and four defeats, 8 goals scored and 18 conceded, the second-leakiest defence in La Liga. Osasuna have not won in five games, with four defeats and a draw. At home they have taken 5 points from four games.
Racing Santander: strong at home, no points away
Two wins, two draws and four defeats: all of Racing’s 8 points have come at home, while away they have lost all four games. They have scored 13 goals but conceded 23, almost three a game, and have never kept a clean sheet. Seven of their eight games have produced at least three goals.
What to expect
The model gives Osasuna 46% and Racing 32%, with 1.9 expected goals to 1.5. The most likely score is 1-1 (9%), level with 2-1. Two defences that have conceded 41 goals in sixteen games: both teams to score and Over 2.5 are at 67%.
Our prediction
Osasuna vs Racing Santander · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Both teams to score
Both teams score
67% estimated probability
Racing have never kept a clean sheet and both teams have scored in six of their eight games. Osasuna, for their part, have conceded 18.
Osasuna 2+ goals
Osasuna score at least twice
57% estimated probability
Racing concede almost three goals a game and have lost every away game. Even an attack that scores once a game, like Osasuna’s, can reach two.
1 & Over 2.5
Osasuna win and at least 3 goals in total
34% estimated probability
Seven of Racing’s eight games have gone over 2.5 goals. If Osasuna win again, they will probably do it in an open game.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.