La Liga · Matchday 10 · Sat 24 Oct · 16:15 (Italian time)
Racing Santander vs Espanyol: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Racing Santander and Espanyol, level on 8 points and one place apart, seventeenth and sixteenth, meet on Saturday at 16:15 (Italian time). Racing have the most-beaten defence in La Liga, 25 goals in nine games, and come off a 2-0 defeat at Osasuna; Espanyol lost 1-0 at home to Atlético Madrid.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeRacing Santander | AwayEspanyol |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 17th8 points | 16th8 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–2–5 | 2–2–5 |
| Goals for–against | 13–251.4–2.8 per match | 11–121.2–1.3 per match |
| Points at home | 8in 4 matches | 4in 5 matches |
| Points away | 0in 5 matches | 4in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 7 of 9 | 5 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 6 of 9 | 6 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 9 | 2 of 9 |
The analysis
Racing Santander: 25 goals conceded and no points away
Two wins, two draws and five defeats, 13 goals scored and 25 conceded: Racing have the most-beaten defence in La Liga, 2.8 goals a game, and have never kept a clean sheet. They have taken 8 points from four home games and none from five away. Seven of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in six.
Espanyol: both teams have scored in six games out of nine
Two wins, two draws and five defeats, 11 goals scored and 12 conceded. Both teams have scored in six of their nine games and five have had at least three goals; Espanyol have kept two clean sheets. At home they have taken 4 points from five games, away 4 from four. They come off a 1-0 home defeat to Atlético Madrid.
What to expect
The model gives Espanyol 40% and Racing 36%, with the draw at 24% and 1.6 expected goals to 1.5: an evenly balanced game, with 3.0 expected goals in total. The most likely score is 1-1 (11%), then 1-2 (9%) and 2-1 (8%). Racing have never kept a clean sheet: both teams to score is rated at 61%, Over 2.5 at 59%.
Our prediction
Racing Santander vs Espanyol · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
Over 1.5
At least 2 goals in total
81% estimated probability
Racing have conceded 25 goals in nine games and seven of their games have had at least three goals. Two are enough: the model expects 3.0.
Both teams to score
Both teams score
61% estimated probability
Racing have never kept a clean sheet and both teams have scored in six of their nine games, as in six of Espanyol’s. The model gives Racing 1.5 expected goals and Espanyol 1.6.
X2 & both teams score
Espanyol avoid defeat and both teams score
41% estimated probability
Racing have the most-beaten defence in La Liga and Espanyol have taken 4 points from four away games. To Espanyol avoiding defeat (64% in the model) we add both teams scoring.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.