La Liga · Matchday 10 · Sat 24 Oct · 14:00 (Italian time)
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Rayo Vallecano host Elche on Saturday at 14:00 (Italian time). The Madrid side are fourteenth on 9 points and both teams have scored in all eight of their games; Elche, eighteenth on 7, have drawn their last two, the latest 0-0 at Villarreal.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeRayo Vallecano | AwayElche |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 14th9 points | 18th7 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 2–3–3 | 1–4–4 |
| Goals for–against | 12–171.5–2.1 per match | 11–171.2–1.9 per match |
| Points at home | 7in 3 matches | 1in 4 matches |
| Points away | 2in 5 matches | 6in 5 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 5 of 8 | 5 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 8 of 8 | 6 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 0 of 8 | 2 of 9 |
The analysis
Rayo Vallecano: both teams scored in all eight games
Two wins, three draws and three defeats in eight games, 12 goals scored and 17 conceded. Both teams have scored in all of them and Rayo have never kept a clean sheet; five have had at least three goals. At home they have taken 7 points from three games, away 2 from five. They come off a 1-1 draw at Getafe.
Elche: six points away, one at home
One win, four draws and four defeats, 11 goals scored and 17 conceded. Elche have taken 6 points from five away games and 1 from four at home; they have drawn their last two, the latest 0-0 at Villarreal. Five of their nine games have had at least three goals and both teams have scored in six.
What to expect
The model gives Rayo Vallecano 51% and Elche 26%, with 1.9 expected goals to 1.3. The most likely scores are 1-1 and 2-1 (10%), then 1-0 and 2-0 (8%). Both teams have scored in all of Rayo’s games; both teams to score is rated at 60%, the same as Over 2.5.
Our prediction
Rayo Vallecano vs Elche · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Rayo Vallecano win or draw
74% estimated probability
Rayo have taken 7 points from three at home. Elche have won only one game in nine.
Rayo Vallecano 2+ goals
Rayo Vallecano score at least twice
55% estimated probability
Rayo have scored 12 goals in eight games, 1.5 a game, and Elche have conceded 17 in nine, with only two clean sheets. The model gives Rayo 1.9 expected goals.
Over 3.5
At least 4 goals in total
38% estimated probability
Both teams have scored in all of Rayo’s games and five of eight have had at least three goals; with Elche, both teams have scored in six of nine. The model expects 3.1 in total: four is the boldest choice.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.