La Liga · Matchday 9 · Sat 17 Oct · 18:30 CEST
Real Betis vs Barcelona: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
This is the headline game of the La Liga round. Barcelona have won all eight games, scoring 34 goals, more than four a game; Real Betis are third on 19 points and have won all four at the Benito Villamarín.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeReal Betis | AwayBarcelona |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 3rd19 points | 1st24 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 6–1–1 | 8–0–0 |
| Goals for–against | 14–91.8–1.1 per match | 34–74.2–0.9 per match |
| Points at home | 12in 4 matches | 12in 4 matches |
| Points away | 7in 4 matches | 12in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 3 of 8 | 7 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 4 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 4 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
The analysis
Real Betis: four out of four at home
Six wins, a draw and a defeat, 14 goals scored and 9 conceded. At home Betis have won all four games and in eight rounds they have kept four clean sheets. Last time out they thrashed Osasuna 5-2.
Barcelona: eight wins out of eight
Eight wins, 34 goals scored and 7 conceded: the best attack of the five leagues. Barcelona have won all four away games and kept a clean sheet in half their matches, the latest in the 3-0 against Getafe.
What to expect
The model gives Barcelona 64% and Betis 17%, with 2.3 expected goals to 1.1. The most likely scores are 1-2 (10%), 0-2 and 1-1 (9%). Betis, though, have won every home game: a Betis goal is rated at 66%, a Barcelona clean sheet at 34%.
Our prediction
Real Betis vs Barcelona · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Barcelona win or draw
83% estimated probability
Barcelona have won all eight games, four of them away. Betis have won every home game, but the model gives them 17%.
2
Barcelona win
64% estimated probability
Thirty-four goals in eight games, more than four a game: Barcelona have won everywhere. The model gives them 2.3 expected goals even against a defence that has kept four clean sheets.
2 & both teams score
Barcelona win and both teams score
34% estimated probability
Betis have scored 14 goals and have won every home game: they are unlikely to draw a blank. We ask for a Barcelona win with at least one Betis goal; the model’s most likely score is exactly 1-2.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.