La Liga · Matchday 9 · Sun 18 Oct · 21:00 CEST
Real Madrid vs Sevilla: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
La Liga’s Sunday ends at the Bernabéu with Real Madrid v Sevilla, fourth against fifth. Real have won all four home games and are 6 points behind Barcelona; Sevilla, on 14, come off a 3-3 at Levante and have taken 8 points from four away games.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeReal Madrid | AwaySevilla |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 4th18 points | 5th14 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 6–0–2 | 4–2–2 |
| Goals for–against | 19–82.4–1.0 per match | 13–121.6–1.5 per match |
| Points at home | 12in 4 matches | 6in 4 matches |
| Points away | 6in 4 matches | 8in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 8 | 5 of 8 |
| Both teams scored | 5 of 8 | 6 of 8 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 8 | 2 of 8 |
The analysis
Real Madrid: four out of four at home
Six wins and two defeats, 19 goals scored and 8 conceded. Real have won every game at the Bernabéu, most recently 1-0 against Villarreal; both defeats came away. Six of their games have produced at least three goals.
Sevilla: they know how to pick up points away
Four wins, two draws and two defeats, 13 goals scored and 12 conceded. Sevilla have taken more points away, 8 from four games, than at home. Both teams have scored in six of their eight games and they have kept only two clean sheets.
What to expect
The model gives Real Madrid 70% and Sevilla 12%, with 2.3 expected goals to 0.8. The most likely scores are 2-0 (12%), 1-0 and 2-1 (10%), and a Real clean sheet is rated at 44%. Both teams have scored in six of Sevilla’s eight games: a Sevilla goal is rated at 56%.
Our prediction
Real Madrid vs Sevilla · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1
Real Madrid win
70% estimated probability
Real Madrid have won all four home games. The model gives them 70%, against Sevilla’s 12%.
1 & Over 1.5
Real Madrid win and at least 2 goals in total
60% estimated probability
Six of Real’s eight games have had at least three goals. To a Real win we add at least two goals in total.
Real Madrid clean sheet
Real Madrid do not concede
44% estimated probability
Real have kept a clean sheet in only two of eight games, but the latest was the 1-0 against Villarreal. Against a Sevilla side that almost always scores, it is the boldest pick.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.