La Liga · Matchday 10 · Mon 26 Oct · 21:00 (Italian time)
Sevilla vs Osasuna: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Sevilla, sixth on 14 points, close matchday 10 of La Liga against Osasuna, tenth on 11, on Monday at 21:00 (Italian time). The hosts come off a 4-1 defeat at Real Madrid, Osasuna off a 2-0 win over Racing Santander that ended a run of four games without a win.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeSevilla | AwayOsasuna |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 6th14 points | 10th11 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 4–2–3 | 3–2–4 |
| Goals for–against | 14–161.6–1.8 per match | 10–181.1–2.0 per match |
| Points at home | 6in 4 matches | 8in 5 matches |
| Points away | 8in 5 matches | 3in 4 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 6 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
| Both teams scored | 7 of 9 | 4 of 9 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 9 | 3 of 9 |
The analysis
Sevilla: both teams have scored in seven games out of nine
Four wins, two draws and three defeats, 14 goals scored and 16 conceded. Both teams have scored in seven of their nine games and six have had at least three goals; Sevilla have kept two clean sheets. At home they have taken 6 points from four games, away 8 from five. They come off a 4-1 defeat at Real Madrid.
Osasuna: 8 points out of 11 at home
Three wins, two draws and four defeats, 10 goals scored and 18 conceded. Osasuna have taken 8 points from five home games and 3 from four away; last time out they beat Racing Santander 2-0, after four games without a win. They have kept three clean sheets.
What to expect
The model gives Sevilla 54% and Osasuna 24%, with 1.9 expected goals to 1.2. The most likely scores are 1-1 and 2-1 (10%), then 1-0 (9%) and 2-0 (8%). Both teams have scored in seven of Sevilla’s games: both teams to score is rated at 58%, the same as Over 2.5.
Our prediction
Sevilla vs Osasuna · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
1X
Sevilla win or draw
76% estimated probability
Sevilla have lost three of nine and Osasuna four; away from home Osasuna have taken 3 points from four games. The model gives Sevilla 54% and the draw 23%.
Sevilla 2+ goals
Sevilla score at least twice
56% estimated probability
Sevilla have scored 14 goals in nine games and Osasuna have conceded 18, two a game. The model gives the hosts 1.9 expected goals.
1 & Over 2.5
Sevilla win and at least 3 goals in total
36% estimated probability
Six of Sevilla’s nine games and four of Osasuna’s have had at least three goals; the model expects 3.0 in total. To the Andalusian win we add at least three goals.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.