La Liga · Matchday 9 · Sat 17 Oct · 21:00 CEST
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao: preview and prediction
Go to the prediction ↓Preview
Valencia are second from bottom on 5 points and still without a win at Mestalla: one point from four games. Athletic Bilbao, tenth on 8, have played two games fewer, including last weekend’s game against Rayo, which was postponed, and have one of the best defences in La Liga: 6 goals conceded.
The numbers
| Stat | HomeValencia | AwayAthletic Bilbao |
|---|---|---|
| League position | 19th5 points | 10th8 points |
| Last matches (oldest first) | ||
| Won–drawn–lost | 1–2–5 | 2–2–2 |
| Goals for–against | 6–150.8–1.9 per match | 7–61.2–1.0 per match |
| Points at home | 1in 4 matches | 5in 4 matches |
| Points away | 4in 4 matches | 3in 2 matches |
| Matches with 3+ goals | 4 of 8 | 2 of 6 |
| Both teams scored | 3 of 8 | 2 of 6 |
| Clean sheets | 2 of 8 | 3 of 6 |
The analysis
Valencia: one point from four games at Mestalla
One win, two draws and five defeats, 6 goals scored and 15 conceded: only Getafe and Málaga have scored fewer. At home Valencia have lost three of four and their only win came away. Last time out they drew 2-2 in Santander.
Athletic Bilbao: one of the best defences
Two wins, two draws and two defeats in six games, 7 goals scored and 6 conceded: with Celta, the meanest defence in the league. Athletic have kept three clean sheets and only two of their games have produced at least three goals. Last weekend’s game against Rayo was postponed.
What to expect
The model gives Athletic 46% and Valencia 26%, with 1.4 expected goals to 1.0. The most likely scores are 0-1 and 1-1 (13%), then 0-0 (10%): with 2.3 expected goals in total it is one of the tightest games of the week. Athletic’s clean sheet is at 38%.
Our prediction
Valencia vs Athletic Bilbao · three predictions, from the most likely to the boldest
X2
Athletic Bilbao win or draw
74% estimated probability
Valencia have taken one point from four home games and lost five times in eight rounds. Athletic have lost two of six.
X2 & Under 3.5
Athletic Bilbao avoid defeat and at most 3 goals in total
58% estimated probability
Athletic have conceded 6 goals in six games and only two of their games have gone over 2.5. To Athletic avoiding defeat we add at most three goals.
Athletic Bilbao clean sheet
Athletic Bilbao do not concede
38% estimated probability
Three clean sheets in six games for Athletic, against a Valencia side that has scored 6 goals in eight rounds.
Model estimates, not certainties. No prediction guarantees a win.